相关论文: Multi-Strain Age-Structured Dengue Transmission Mo…

To mitigate the impact of the pandemic, several measures include lockdowns, rapid vaccination programs, school closures, and economic stimulus. These interventions can have positive or unintended negative consequences. Current research to…

Dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials for decades in tropical and subtropical countries. We construct a compartmental model that includes the risk of hospitalization and its impact on public health policies. The…

As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae.…

The Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam faces increasing dengue risks driven by urbanization, globalization, and climate change. This study introduces a probabilistic forecasting model for predicting dengue incidence and outbreaks with one to…

In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE),…

The current manuscript introduce a single-strain dengue model developed from stochastic processes incorporating fractional order transmission and recovery. The fractional derivative has been introduced within the context of transmission and…

Controlling diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and zika fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in mosquito populations which are their vectors, is presently quite a promising tool to reduce their…

Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from…

The outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome in December 2019 has escalated into a worldwide pandemic. In this work, we propose a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of transmission of infection and…

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…

Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health…

During decades, mathematical models have been used to predict the behavior of physical and biologic systems, and to define strategies aiming the minimization of the effects regarding different types of diseases. In the present days, the…

Mosquitoes are responsible for the transmission of many diseases such as dengue fever, zika or chigungunya. One way to control the spread of these diseases is to use the sterile insect technique (SIT), which consists in a massive release of…

Medical statistics reveal a significant dependence of hospitalized dengue patient on the patient's age. To incorporate an age-dependence into a mathematical model, we extend the classical ODE system of disease dynamics to a PDE system. The…

Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…

In this paper we propose and study a spatial diffusion model for the control of anthracnose disease in a bounded domain. The model is a generalization of the one previously developed in [14]. We use the model to simulate two different types…

After the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw an increase in demand for epidemiological mathematical models. The goal of this work is to study the optimal control for an age-structured model as a strategy of quarantine of infected people, which is…

Efficient testing and vaccination protocols are critical aspects of epidemic management. To study the optimal allocation of limited testing and vaccination resources in a heterogeneous contact network of interacting susceptible, recovered,…

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes and is a global threat with health, social, and economic impact in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. The virus transmission is significantly…

The 2013 outbreak of Dengue in Fiji resulted in an alarming number of deaths and has been is a matter of serious concern. Dengue fever is a disease caused by the four types of the Dengue virus serotypes and transmitted mostly from mosquito…