相关论文: Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum…

We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…

We analyse extreme daily minimum temperatures in winter months over the island of Ireland from 1950-2022. We model the marginal distributions of extreme winter minima using a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD), capturing temporal and…

Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…

We quantify changes DeltaQ in 100-year return values for regional annual maxima and minima of near-surface atmospheric temperature from output of five CMIP6 models, for five of the Earth's desert regions, over the interval (2025,2125). We…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Geostatistical models for multivariate applications such as heavy metal soil contamination work under Gaussian assumptions and may result in underestimated extreme values and misleading risk assessments (Marchant et al, 2011). A more…

Different ways to estimate future return levels for extreme rainfall are described and applied to the Iberian Peninsula (IP), based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT). This study is made for an ensemble of high quality rainfall time series…

A baroclinic model for the atmospheric jet at middle-latitudes is used as a stochastic generator of time series of the total energy of the system. Statistical inference of extreme values is applied to yearly maxima sequences of the time…

The study of the extreme weather space events is important for a technological dependent society. Extreme Value Theory could be decisive to characterize those extreme events in order to have the knowledge to make decisions in technological,…

We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…

In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…

Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…

This paper introduces a method for spatial interpolation of extreme values, and in particular targets the case in which conventional data, resulting from a measurement for example, are available at only a few locations. To overcome this the…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

The increasing frequency of extreme temperature events, such as daily maximum temperature ($T_x$) records, underscores the need for robust tools to understand their drivers and predict their occurrence. Previous studies have identified…