相关论文: Bayesian spatial extreme value analysis of maximum…

Space weather events can negatively affect satellites, the electricity grid, satellite navigation systems and human health. As a consequence, extreme space weather has been added to the UK and other national risk registers. By their very…

Understanding the spatial distribution of animals, during all their life phases, as well as how the distributions are influenced by environmental covariates, is a fundamental requirement for the effective management of animal populations.…

Pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are gathered in venous thromboembolism (VTE) and represent the third cause of cardiovascular diseases. Recent studies suggest that meteorological parameters as atmospheric pressure,…

Predictions of the uncertainty associated with extreme events are a vital component of any prediction system for such events. Consequently, the prediction system ought to be probabilistic in nature, with the predictions taking the form of…

nsEVDx is an open-source Python package for fitting stationary and nonstationary Extreme Value Distributions (EVDs) to extreme value data. It can be used to model extreme events in fields like hydrology, climate science, finance, and…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…

We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…

Modeling precipitation and its accumulation over time and space is essential for flood risk assessment. In this paper, we analyze rainfall data collected over several years through a micro-scale precipitation sensor network in Montpellier,…

For extreme value estimation we propose to use a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the center and generalized Pareto densities for the tails. Due to the randomness in the center and a heavy tailed density in the…

Periodic inspections are necessary to keep railroad tracks in state of good repair and prevent train accidents. Automatic track inspection using machine vision technology has become a very effective inspection tool. Because of its…

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities through fossil fuel emissions and land use changes have increased climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts that have led to and are expected to increase the occurrence of…

Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. $r$-Pareto processes are mathematically…

Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However,…

Data fusion models are widely used in air quality monitoring to integrate in situ and large-scale gridded products, offering spatially complete and temporally detailed estimates. However, traditional Gaussian-based models often…

Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…

The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is a popular model for analyzing and forecasting extreme weather data. To increase prediction accuracy, spatial information is often pooled via a latent Gaussian process (GP) on the GEV…

Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools…

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a widely researched topic with broad applications in weather forecasting, traffic control, and stock price prediction. Extreme values in time series often significantly impact human and natural systems, but…