相关论文: Inference for extreme values under threshold-based…

We propose Echo State Networks (ESNs) to predict the statistics of extreme events in a turbulent flow. We train the ESNs on small datasets that lack information about the extreme events. We asses whether the networks are able to extrapolate…

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered significant attention in recent years due to the growing interest in deploying RL agents in real-world scenarios. A critical aspect of risk awareness involves modeling highly rare risk…

We derive precursors of extreme dissipation events in a turbulent channel flow. Using a recently developed method that combines dynamics and statistics for the underlying attractor, we extract a characteristic state that precedes…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

Superstatistics is a general method from nonequilibrium statistical physics which has been applied to a variety of complex systems, ranging from hydrodynamic turbulence to traffic delays and air pollution dynamics. Here, we investigate…

Threshold selection is a critical issue for extreme value analysis with threshold-based approaches. Under suitable conditions, exceedances over a high threshold have been shown to follow the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD)…

In environmental sciences, it is often of interest to assess whether the dependence between extreme measurements has changed during the observation period. The aim of this work is to propose a statistical test that is particularly sensitive…

Extreme events play a crucial role in fluid turbulence. Inspired by methods from field theory, these extreme events, their evolution and probability can be computed with help of the instanton formalism as minimizers of a suitable action…

Extreme sea level estimates are fundamental for mitigating against coastal flooding as they provide insight for defence engineering. As the global climate changes, rising sea levels combined with increases in storm intensity and frequency…

Waves traveling through random media exhibit random focusing that leads to extremely high wave intensities even in the absence of nonlinearities. Although such extreme events are present in a wide variety of physical systems and the…

Transport engineers employ various interventions to enhance traffic-network performance. Quantifying the impacts of Cycle Superhighways is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such an intervention over the transport network.…

The use of the annual maximum series for flood frequency analyses limits the considered information to one event per year and one sample that is assumed to be homogeneous. However, flood may have different generating processes, such as…

Statically reasoning in the presence of exceptions and about the effects of exceptions is challenging: exception-flows are mutually determined by traditional control-flow and points-to analyses. We tackle the challenge of analyzing…

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point…

Visualization is an essential operation when assessing the risk of rare events such as coastal or river floodings. The goal is to display a few prototype events that best represent the probability law of the observed phenomenon, a task…

Extreme geophysical events are of crucial relevance to our daily life: they threaten human lives and cause property damage. To assess the risk and reduce losses, we need to model and probabilistically predict these events. Parametrizations…

Recently, there has been a surge in interest in safe and robust techniques within reinforcement learning (RL). Current notions of risk in RL fail to capture the potential for systemic failures such as abrupt stoppages from system failures…

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…

This thesis is devoted to the study of extreme value statistics in stochastic processes and their applications. In the first part, we obtain exact analytical results on the extreme value statistics of both discrete-time and continuous-time…