相关论文: Inference for extreme values under threshold-based…

Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…

We show that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is an effective tool for mitigating non-flow effects in flow analysis. To this end, one constructs two toy models that simulate non-flow contributions corresponding to particle decay and…

In extreme value analysis, sensitivity of inference to the definition of extreme event is a paramount issue. Under the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, this translates directly into the need of fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution…

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…

We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…

The substantial growth of network traffic speed and volume presents practical challenges to network data analysis. Packet thinning and flow aggregation protocols such as NetFlow reduce the size of datasets by providing structured data…

Machine learning classification methods usually assume that all possible classes are sufficiently present within the training set. Due to their inherent rarities, extreme events are always under-represented and classifiers tailored for…

Designs conditions for marine structures are typically informed by threshold-based extreme value analyses of oceanographic variables, in which excesses of a high threshold are modelled by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Too low a…

Multivariate extreme value analysis quantifies the probability and magnitude of joint extreme events. River discharges from the upper Danube River basin provide a challenging dataset for such analysis because the data, which is measured on…

In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…

Max-stable processes are increasingly widely used for modelling complex extreme events, but existing fitting methods are computationally demanding, limiting applications to a few dozen variables. $r$-Pareto processes are mathematically…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

An extreme event is a sudden and violent change in the state of a nonlinear system. In fluid dynamics, extreme events can have adverse effects on the system's optimal design and operability, which calls for accurate methods for their…

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…

Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the…

This paper considers the regional estimation of high quantiles of annual maximal river flow distributions $F$, an important problem from flood frequency analysis. Even though this particular problem has been addressed by many papers, less…