相关论文: Pattern Analysis of World Conflicts over the past …

Armed conflict data display scaling and universal dynamics in both social and physical properties like fatalities and geographic extent. We propose a randomly branching, armed-conflict model that relates multiple properties to one another…

We investigate structural features and processes associated with the onset of systemic conflict using an approach which integrates complex systems theory with network modeling and analysis. We present a signed network model of cooperation…

The American Indian war lasted over one hundred years, and is a major event in the history of North America. As expected, since the war commenced in late eighteenth century, casualty records surrounding this conflict contain numerous…

Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…

Modeling human dynamics responsible for the formation and evolution of the so-called social networks - structures comprised of individuals or organizations and indicating connectivities existing in a community - is a topic recently…

Our experience of web access slowing down is a consequence of the aggregated web access pattern of web users. This is just one example among several human oriented services which are strongly affected by human activity patterns. Recent…

The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire…

Is a causal description of human wealth history conceivable? To investigate the matter we introduce a simple causal albeit strongly aggregated model, assuming that the observed wealth growth is mainly driven by human collaborative efforts…

Studies on interpersonal conflict have a long history and contain many suggestions for conflict typology. We use this as the basis of a novel annotation scheme and release a new dataset of situations and conflict aspect annotations. We then…

Why are human societies unstable? Theories based on the observation of recurring patterns in historical data indicate that economic inequality, as well as social factors are key drivers. So far, models of this phenomenon are more…

In the recent period of time with a lot of social platforms emerging, the relationships among various units can be framed with respect to either positive, negative or no relation. These units can be individuals, countries or others that…

A new model, called "Human Dynamics", has been recently proposed that individuals execute activities based on a perceived priority of tasks, which can be characterized by a power-law distribution of waiting time between consecutive tasks…

We draw on the data collected by the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System on millions of international and regional public news stories, and this system's indicators of the orientation toward a specific nation-state. We construct the…

The focus of this paper is an approach to the modeling of longitudinal social network or relational data. Such data arise from measurements on pairs of objects or actors made at regular temporal intervals, resulting in a social network for…

We introduce a new methodology to analyze the evolution of epidemic time series, which is based on the construction of epidemic networks. First, we translate the time series into ordinal patterns containing information about local…

The network-based model of social contagion has revolved around information on local interactions; its central focus has been on network topological properties shaping the local interactions and, ultimately, social contagion outcomes. We…

During the last years, statistical physics has received an increasing attention as a framework for the analysis of real complex systems; yet, this is less clear in the case of international political events, partly due to the complexity in…

Understanding how societies react to epidemic threats requires more than tracking infection curves. Public perception, collective memory and behavioural adaptation interact through feedback loops that can amplify or suppress the spread of…

Disagreement and conflict are a fact of social life and considerably affect our well-being and productivity. Such negative interactions are rarely explicitly declared and recorded and this makes them hard for scientists to study. We…

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or…