相关论文: Pattern Analysis of World Conflicts over the past …

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or…

We investigate the time evolution of disease spread on a network by using the concept of generations. We derive a set of equations, which can be used to determine the average epidemic size. We find a very good agreement between the…

The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved…

This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…

Quantities with right-skewed distributions are ubiquitous in complex social systems, including political conflict, economics and social networks, and these systems sometimes produce extremely large events. For instance, the 9/11 terrorist…

Over the past decade network theory has turned out to be a powerful methodology to investigate complex systems of various sorts. Through data analysis, modeling, and simulation quite an unparalleled insight into their structure, function,…

The increasing availability of large-scale data on human behavior has catalyzed simultaneous advances in network theory, capturing the scaling properties of the interactions between a large number of individuals, and human dynamics,…

Although very large wars remain an enduring threat in global politics, we lack a clear understanding of how some wars become large and costly, while most do not. There are three possibilities: large conflicts start with and maintain intense…

A model for the spread of an infection is analyzed for different population structures. The interactions within the population are described by small world networks, ranging from ordered lattices to random graphs. For the more ordered…

We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…

Temporal networks are a fundamental and flexible way of describing the activities, relationships, and evolution of any complex system. Global terrorism is one of the biggest concerns of recent times. It is also an example of a temporal…

The humanities are often characterized by sociologists as having a low mutual dependence among scholars and high task uncertainty. According to Fuchs' theory of scientific change, this leads over time to intellectual and social…

The modern news cycle has been fundamentally reshaped by the rapid exchange of information online. As a result, media framing shifts dynamically as new information, political responses, and social reactions emerge. Understanding how these…

Familiar laws of physics are applied to study human relations, modelled by their world lines (worldlines, WLs) combined with social networks. We focus upon the simplest, basic element of any society: a married couple, stable due to the…

The timing patterns of human communication in social networks is not random. On the contrary, communication is dominated by emergent statistical laws such as non-trivial correlations and clustering. Recently, we found long-term correlations…

The spread of viruses in biological networks, computer networks, and human contact networks can have devastating effects; developing and analyzing mathematical models of these systems can be insightful and lead to societal benefits. Prior…

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters worldwide. Media coverage of these events may be vital to generate empathy and mobilize global populations to address the common threat posed by climate change.…

This thesis presents a novel framework for analysing the societal impacts of armed conflict by applying principles from engineering and material science. Building on the idea of a "social fabric", it recasts communities as plates with…

Cross-border migration brings economic and cultural impacts to the origin and destination, and is also a key to reflect the international relations of related countries. In fact, the migration relationships of countries are complex and…

The recent information technology revolution has enabled the analysis and processing of large-scale datasets describing human activities. The main source of data is represented by the Web, where humans generally use to spend a relevant part…