相关论文: Central limit theorems for SIR epidemics and perco…

We investigate the sensitivity of epidemic behavior to a bounded susceptibility constraint -- susceptible nodes are infected by their neighbors via the regular SI/SIS dynamics, but subject to a cap on the infection rate. Such a constraint…

We study the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model on arbitrary networks. The well-established pair approximation treats neighboring pairs of nodes exactly while making a mean field approximation for the rest of the network. We…

In this work we performed a numerical study of an epidemic model that mimics the endemic state of whooping cough in the pre-vaccine era. We considered a stochastic SIR model on dynamical networks that involve local and global contacts among…

Compartmental transmission models have become an invaluable tool to study the dynamics of infectious diseases. The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is known to have an exact semi-analytical solution. In the current study, the…

We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on directed complex networks within the quenched mean-field approximation. Combining results from random matrix theory with an analytic approach to the distribution of fixed-point…

We considered the Asynchronous SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) model on Penrose and Ammann-Beenker quasiperiodic lattices, and obtained its critical behavior by using Newman-Ziff algorithm to track cluster propagation by making a tree…

We consider a class of growing random graphs obtained by creating vertices sequentially one by one: at each step, we choose uniformly the neighbours of the newly created vertex; its degree is a random variable with a fixed but arbitrary…

In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…

We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…

Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…

We consider an SIS-type epidemic process that evolves on a known graph. We assume that a fixed curing budget can be allocated at each instant to the nodes of the graph, towards the objective of minimizing the expected extinction time of the…

The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…

The paper deals with a random connection model, a random graph whose vertices are given by a homogeneous Poisson point process on $\mathbb{R}^d$, and edges are independently drawn with probability depending on the locations of the two end…

For fixed $r\geq 2$, we consider bootstrap percolation with threshold $r$ on the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph ${\cal G}_{n,p}$. We identify a threshold for $p$ above which there is with high probability a set of size $r$ which can infect the…

Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with…

We provide a simple proof for of the central limit theorem for the number of vertices in the giant for super-critical stochastic block model using the breadth-first walk of Konarovskyi, Limic and the author (2024). Our approach follows the…

We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…

In this paper, we study the Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) conditioning on the number of edges. In subcritical region of model parameters, we prove a conditional Central Limit Theorem (CLT) with explicit mean and variance for the…

This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex…

Threshold theorem is probably the most important development of mathematical epidemic modelling. Unfortunately, some models may not behave according to the threshold. In this paper, we will focus on the final outcome of SIR model with…