相关论文: Bayesian Model Search for Nonstationary Periodic T…

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions…

In genomic applications, there is often interest in identifying genes whose time-course expression trajectories exhibit periodic oscillations with a period of approximately 24 hours. Such genes are usually referred to as circadian, and…

Neural recordings are nonstationary time series, i.e. their properties typically change over time. Identifying specific changes, e.g. those induced by a learning task, can shed light on the underlying neural processes. However, such changes…

We investigate a stochastic version of the synthetic multicellular clock model proposed by Garcia-Ojalvo, Elowitz and Strogatz. By introducing dynamical noise in the model and assuming that the partial observations of the system can be…

High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

This paper introduces the novel class of modulated cyclostationary processes, a class of non-stationary processes exhibiting frequency coupling, and proposes a method of their estimation from repeated trials. Cyclostationary processes also…

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

Network data arises through observation of relational information between a collection of entities. Recent work in the literature has independently considered when (i) one observes a sample of networks, connectome data in neuroscience being…

In this paper, we present a change point detection method for detecting change points in multivariate nonstationary wind speed time series. The change point method identifies changes in the covariance structure and decomposes the…

We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

Without imposing prior distributional knowledge underlying multivariate time series of interest, we propose a nonparametric change-point detection approach to estimate the number of change points and their locations along the temporal axis.…

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

Although the applications of Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes to model and study the threshold overshoots of interest in different time series of measurements have proven to provide good results, they needed to be complemented with an…

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

We propose a Bayesian model for extracting sleep patterns from smartphone events. Our method is able to identify individuals' daily sleep periods and their evolution over time, and provides an estimation of the probability of sleep and wake…

This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian…

We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…

Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…