相关论文: Bayesian Model Search for Nonstationary Periodic T…

We propose a Bayesian covariate-dependent anti-logistic circadian model for analyzing activity data collected via wrist-worn wearable devices. The proposed approach integrates covariates into the modeling of the amplitude and phase…

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

The vast majority of the literature on learning dynamical systems or stochastic processes from time series has focused on stable or ergodic systems, for both Bayesian and frequentist inference procedures. However, most real-world systems…

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

Change-point models are frequently considered when modeling phenomena where a regime shift occurs at an unknown time. In ageing research, these models are commonly adopted to estimate of the onset of cognitive decline. Yet commonly used…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modelling and predicting a class of functional time series with application to energy markets, based on fully observed, noise-free functional data. Traders in such contexts conceive profitable…

Methods of estimation and forecasting for stationary models are well known in classical time series analysis. However, stationarity is an idealization which, in practice, can at best hold as an approximation, but for many time series may be…

We derive an exact and efficient Bayesian regression algorithm for piecewise constant functions of unknown segment number, boundary location, and levels. It works for any noise and segment level prior, e.g. Cauchy which can handle outliers.…

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Advances in digital sensors, digital data storage and communications have resulted in systems being capable of accumulating large collections of data. In the light of dealing with the challenges that massive data present, this work proposes…

The paper introduces a general framework for statistical analysis of functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. The proposed approach, based on an extension of the popular dynamic linear model to Banach-space valued observations…

We propose a general statistical framework for clustering multiple time series that exhibit nonlinear dynamics into an a-priori-unknown number of sub-groups. Our motivation comes from neuroscience, where an important problem is to identify,…

Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…

In this paper, we use augmented the hierarchical latent variable model to model multi-period time series, where the dynamics of time series are governed by factors or trends in multiple periods. Previous methods based on stacked recurrent…

We measure the influence of different time-scales on the dynamics of financial market data. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying…

Since forced oscillations are exogenous to dynamic power system models, the models by themselves cannot predict when or where a forced oscillation will occur. Locating the sources of these oscillations, therefore, is a challenging problem…

Although animal locations gained via GPS, etc. are typically observed on a discrete time scale, movement models formulated in continuous time are preferable in order to avoid the struggles experienced in discrete time when faced with…

In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…

Circular data arise in many areas of application. Recently, there has been interest in looking at circular data collected separately over time and over space. Here, we extend some of this work to the spatio-temporal setting, introducing…