相关论文: Bayesian Model Search for Nonstationary Periodic T…

This paper introduces a new framework to quantify distance between finite sets with uncertainty present, where probability distributions determine the locations of individual elements. Combining this with a Bayesian change point detection…

Changepoints are abrupt variations in the generative parameters of a data sequence. Online detection of changepoints is useful in modelling and prediction of time series in application areas such as finance, biometrics, and robotics. While…

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

We present online prediction methods for time series that let us explicitly handle nonstationary artifacts (e.g. trend and seasonality) present in most real time series. Specifically, we show that applying appropriate transformations to…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…

This paper proposes a new minimum description length procedure to detect multiple changepoints in time series data when some times are a priori thought more likely to be changepoints. This scenario arises with temperature time series…

Many astrophysical phenomena are time-varying, in the sense that their intensity, energy spectrum, and/or the spatial distribution of the emission suddenly change. This paper develops a method for modeling a time series of images. Under the…

Circular time series has received relatively little attention in statistics and modeling complex circular time series using the state space approach is non-existent in the literature. In this article we introduce a flexible Bayesian…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Objective: We present a technique for identification and statistical analysis of quasiperiodic spatiotemporal pressure signals recorded from multiple closely spaced sensors in the human colon. Methods: Identification is achieved by…

We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

Motivated by neuroscience applications, we introduce the concept of qualitative detection, that is, the problem of determining on-line the current qualitative dynamical behavior (e.g., resting, oscillating, bursting, spiking etc.) of a…

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

We propose the first Bayesian methods for detecting change points in high-dimensional mean and covariance structures. These methods are constructed using pairwise Bayes factors, leveraging modularization to identify significant changes in…

Detecting anomalies in multivariate time series(MTS) data plays an important role in many domains. The abnormal values could indicate events, medical abnormalities,cyber-attacks, or faulty devices which if left undetected could lead to…

We consider Bayesian analysis of a class of multiple changepoint models. While there are a variety of efficient ways to analyse these models if the parameters associated with each segment are independent, there are few general approaches…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for unveiling the structure of the invariant global stable manifold from observed time-series data. The underlying unknown dynamical process is…

Time-series analysis is critical for a diversity of applications in science and engineering. By leveraging the strengths of modern gradient descent algorithms, the Fourier transform, multi-resolution analysis, and Bayesian spectral…

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…