相关论文: Large deviations for conditional guesswork

\noindent We study the asymptotic behavior of a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned by a sum of independent and identically distributed integer-valued random variables. We prove a Berry-Esseen bound…

For a class of additive processes driven by the affine recursion $X_{n+1} = A_n X_n + B_n$, we develop a sample-path large deviations principle in the $M_1'$ topology on $D [0,1]$. We allow $B_n$ to have both signs and focus on the case…

The problem of sequential anomaly detection and identification is considered, where multiple data sources are simultaneously monitored and the goal is to identify in real time those, if any, that exhibit ``anomalous" statistical behavior.…

We consider a sequence $X^n=(X^n_t)_{t\ge 0},n\ge 1$ of semimartingales. Each $X^n$ is a weak solution to an It\^o equation with respect to a Wiener process and a Poissonian martingale measure and is in general non-Markovian process. For…

The solution of the continuous time filtering problem can be represented as a ratio of two expectations of certain functionals of the signal process that are parametrized by the observation path. We introduce a class of discretization…

In this short note we consider semi-Markov processes satisfying the condition of direction-time independence (Markov renewal processes). We derive large deviation principles and fluctuation theorems for the empirical current and the…

The entropy of an ergodic finite-alphabet process can be computed from a single typical sample path x_1^n using the entropy of the k-block empirical probability and letting k grow with $n$ roughly like log n. We further assume that the…

Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individual proteins are routinely garnered in single-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies. They contain vital clues on how viruses…

As large language models (LLMs) gain popularity in conducting prediction tasks in-context, understanding the sources of uncertainty in in-context learning becomes essential to ensuring reliability. The recent hypothesis of in-context…

We consider the branching random walk drifting to $-\infty$ and we investigate large deviations-type estimates for the first passage time. We prove the corresponding law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the large deviations for a class of slow-fast mean-field diffusions, which extends some existing results to the case where the laws of fast process are also involved in the slow component. Due to the…

Let $A$ be a transition probability kernel on a finite state space $\Delta^o =\{1, \ldots , d\}$ such that $A(x,y)>0$ for all $x,y \in \Delta^o$. Consider a reinforced chain given as a sequence $\{X_n, \; n \in \mathbb{N}_0\}$ of…

We derive a large deviation principle for families of random variables in the basin of attraction of spectrally positive stable distributions by proving a uniform version of the Tauberian theorem for Laplace-Stieltjes transforms. The main…

The aim of this paper is to improve the large deviation principle for the number of descents in a random permutation by establishing a sharp large deviation principle of any order. We shall also prove a sharp large deviation principle of…

Given a matrix $A$, a linear feasibility problem (of which linear classification is a special case) aims to find a solution to a primal problem $w: A^Tw > \textbf{0}$ or a certificate for the dual problem which is a probability distribution…

This paper studies a new and more general axiomatization than one presented previously for preference on likelihood gambles. Likelihood gambles describe actions in a situation where a decision maker knows multiple probabilistic models and a…

We consider a general class of epidemic models obtained by applying a random time change to a collection of Poisson processes and we show the large deviation principle for such models. We generalize to a more general situation the approach…

We study the small-time behaviour of the rough Bergomi model, introduced by Bayer, Friz and Gatheral (2016), and prove a large deviations principle for a rescaled version of the normalised log stock price process, which then allows us to…

We study the largest component of a random (multi)graph on n vertices with a given degree sequence. We let n tend to infinity. Then, under some regularity conditions on the degree sequences, we give conditions on the asymptotic shape of the…

This article concerns the large deviations regime and the consequent solution of the Kramers problem for a two-time scale stochastic system driven by a common jump noise signal perturbed in small intensity $\varepsilon>0$ and with…