相关论文: Leveraging Elastic Demand for Forecasting

Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions.…

We develop a new identification strategy for demand estimation when cost shifters may not be available and there are substantial variations in demand over time. This approaches relies on a kind of nonlinear difference-in-differences, in…

Reliable demand forecasts are critical for the effective supply chain management. Several endogenous and exogenous variables can influence the dynamics of demand, and hence a single statistical model that only consists of historical sales…

This paper is about our attempt of identifying trade elasticities through the variations in the exchange rate, for possible applications to the case of services whose physical transactions are veiled in the trade statistics. The regression…

Demand estimation plays an important role in dynamic pricing where the optimal price can be obtained via maximizing the revenue based on the demand curve. In online hotel booking platform, the demand or occupancy of rooms varies across…

The relationship between demand and prices of a set of products can be modeled as a linear mapping from logarithmic price changes to logarithmic changes in demand. We consider the problem of estimating the coefficient matrix of this…

In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand…

The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a…

Pricing decisions are often made when market information is still poor. In turn, existing theoretical models often reason about the response of optimal prices to changing market characteristics without exploiting all available information…

Demand forecasting is a crucial component of demand management. While shortening the forecasting horizon allows for more recent data and less uncertainty, this frequently means lower data aggregation levels and a more significant data…

We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…

Income- and price-elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income, and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference-independence (additive preferences), mathematical…

We propose and analyze numerically a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand forecast. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameters values we observe a wide variety of market dynamics…

Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…

Long-term planning of a robust power system requires the understanding of changing demand patterns. Electricity demand is highly weather sensitive. Thus, the supply side variation from introducing intermittent renewable sources, juxtaposed…

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market…

Water demand is a highly important variable for operational control and decision making. Hence, the development of accurate forecasts is a valuable field of research to further improve the efficiency of water utilities. Focusing on…

Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from…

There is an opportunity in modern power systems to explore the demand flexibility by incentivizing consumers with dynamic prices. In this paper, we quantify demand flexibility using an efficient tool called time-varying elasticity, whose…

The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on…