相关论文: Finding a Zipf distribution and cascading propagat…
We show how to use standard transmission line outage historical data to obtain the network topology in such a way that cascades of line outages can be easily located on the network. Then we obtain statistics quantifying how cascading…
When there is a fault, the protection system automatically removes one or more transmission lines on a fast time scale of less than one minute. The outaged lines form a pattern in the transmission network. We extract these patterns from…
Given increasing risk from climate-induced natural hazards, there is growing interest in the development of methods that can quantitatively measure resilience in power systems. This work quantifies resilience in electric power transmission…
We use observed transmission line outage data to make a Markov influence graph that describes the probabilities of transitions between generations of cascading line outages, where each generation of a cascade consists of a single line…
In a cascading power transmission outage, component outages propagate non-locally, after one component outages, the next failure may be very distant, both topologically and geographically. As a result, simple models of topological contagion…
This paper focuses on cascading line failures in the transmission system of the power grid. Recent large-scale power outages demonstrated the limitations of percolation- and epid- emic-based tools in modeling cascades. Hence, we study…
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of networked nodes amplify to large cascades that endanger the functioning of the system? Common answers refer to the average final cascade size. Two analytic approaches allow its computation:…
Transmission line outage rates are fundamental to power system reliability analysis. Line outages are infrequent, occurring only about once a year, so outage data are limited. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that leverages line…
We model power grids transporting electricity generated by intermittent renewable sources as complex networks, where line failures can emerge indirectly by noisy power input at the nodes. By combining concepts from statistical physics and…
We consider the task of estimating a network cascade as fast as possible. The cascade is assumed to spread according to a general Susceptible-Infected process with heterogeneous transmission rates from an unknown source in the network.…
We develop LENORI, a Large Event Number of Outages Resilience Index measuring distribution system resilience with the number of forced line outages observed in large extreme events. LENORI is calculated from standard utility outage data.…
The size distribution of planned and forced outages and following restoration times in power systems have been studied for almost two decades and has drawn great interest as they display heavy tails. Understanding of this phenomenon has…
In this paper we will look at the distribution with which passwords are chosen. Zipf's Law is commonly observed in lists of chosen words. Using password lists from four different on-line sources, we will investigate if Zipf's law is a good…
An algorithm for efficiently calculating the expected size of single-seed cascade dynamics on networks is proposed and tested. The expected size is a time-dependent quantity and so enables the identification of nodes who are the most…
We derive an exact expression for the probability density function of the cascade size (total progeny) in a continuous state branching process when the generations are Gamma distributed. The distribution has application in the modelling of…
In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail, in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Here, we develop a statistical…
Cascade models are central to understanding, predicting, and controlling epidemic spreading and information propagation. Related optimization, including influence maximization, model parameter inference, or the development of vaccination…
An outage detection framework for power distribution networks is proposed. Given the tree structure of the distribution system, a method is developed combining the use of real-time power flow measurements on edges of the tree with load…
The entropy of network ensembles characterizes the amount of information encoded in the network structure, and can be used to quantify network complexity, and the relevance of given structural properties observed in real network datasets…
Power grid outages cause huge economical and societal costs. Disruptions in the power distribution grid are responsible for a significant fraction of electric power unavailability to customers. The impact of extreme weather conditions,…