相关论文: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a …

Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical…

A formal averaging procedure over the air-sea interface is developed for both momentum and enthalpy surface-transfer coefficients, C_D and C_K, in hurricane conditions. This leads to splitting of both the transfer coefficients across the…

In many dynamical systems in nature, the law of the dynamics changes along with the temporal evolution of the system. These changes are often associated with the occurrence of certain events. The timing of occurrence of these events…

A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…

Planners who wish to manage coastal flood risk with long-lived infrastructure (e.g., levees, floodwalls) under a constrained computational budget face a tradeoff. Simulating a large number of future time periods or scenarios with different…

Compressive isothermal turbulence is known to have a near lognormal density probability distribution function (PDF) with a width that scales with the sonic Mach number and nature of the turbulent driving (solenoidal vs compressive).…

Since many environmental processes such as heat waves or precipitation are spatial in extent, it is likely that a single extreme event affects several locations and the areal modeling of extremes is therefore essential if the spatial…

Analyzing big geophysical observational data collected by multiple advanced sensors on various satellite platforms promotes our understanding of the geophysical system. For instance, convolutional neural networks (CNN) have achieved great…

Simulating realistic wet and dry spells is central in weather generators and climate-impact studies. While finite-order Markov chains are standard, they often fail to reproduce persistent dry conditions due to their inherent subexponential…

Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high…

This paper presents a novel methodology for modelling precipitation patterns in a specific geographical region using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Departing from conventional HMMs, where the hidden state process is assumed to be Markovian,…

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…

Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…

A Markov state model is a powerful tool that can be used to track the evolution of populations of configurations in an atomistic representation of a protein. For a coarse-grained linear chain model with discontinuous interactions, the…

Land use land cover changes (LULCC) are generally modeled using multi-scale spatio-temporal variables. Recently, Markov Chain (MC) has been used to model LULCC. However, the model is derived from the proportion of LULCC observed over a…

Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…

Data sets comprised of sequences of curves sampled at high frequencies in time are increasingly common in practice, but they can exhibit complicated dependence structures that cannot be modelled using common methods of Functional Data…

Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…