相关论文: Dating and localizing an invasion from post-introd…

We consider a stochastic individual-based model of adaptive dynamics for an asexually reproducing population with mutation, with linear birth and death rates, as well as a density-dependent competition. To depict repeating changes of the…

The problem of locating an odor source in turbulent flows is central to key applications such as environmental monitoring and disaster response. We address this challenge by designing an algorithm based on Bayesian inference, which uses…

Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…

We introduce a model called Host-Pathogen game for studying biological competitions. Notably, we focus on the invasive dynamics of external agents, like bacteria, within a host organism. The former are mapped to a population of defectors…

Spatial extent is a complicating factor in mathematical biology. The possibility that an action at point A cannot immediately affect what happens at point B creates the opportunity for spatial nonuniformity. This nonuniformity must change…

Due to climate change and human activity, wildfires are expected to become more frequent and extreme worldwide, causing economic and ecological disasters. The deployment of preventive measures and operational forecasts can be aided by…

Dynamics of the infectious disease transmission is often best understood taking into account the structure of population with respect to specific features, in example age or immunity level. Practical utility of such models depends on the…

In this paper, we propose a fractional differential equation of order one-half, to model the evolution through time of the dynamics of accumulation and elimination of the contaminant in human organism with a deficient immune system, during…

In 2022, Ukraine is suffering an invasion which has resulted in acute impacts playing out over time and geography. This paper examines the impact of the ongoing disruption on traffic behavior using analytics as well as zonal-based network…

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary…

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop…

The goal of this work is to understand and quantify how a line with nonlocal diffusion given by an integral enhances a reaction-diffusion process occurring in the surrounding plane. This is part of a long term programme where we aim at…

In this chapter we review some of the basic attack constructions that exploit a stochastic description of the state variables. We pose the state estimation problem in a Bayesian setting and cast the bad data detection procedure as a…

Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…

We present two approaches to study invasion in growth-fragmentation-death mod- els. The first one is based on a stochastic individual based model, which is a piecewise deterministic branching process with a continuum of types, and the…

The analysis of diffusion processes in real-world propagation scenarios often involves estimating variables that are not directly observed. These hidden variables include parental relationships, the strengths of connections between nodes,…

Cell populations invade through a combination of proliferation and motility. Proliferation depends on the internal timing of cell division: how long cells take to complete the cell cycle. This timing varies substantially within (and across)…

The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

We are interested in modeling some two-level population dynamics, resulting from the interplay of ecological interactions and phenotypic variation of individuals (or hosts) and the evolution of cells (or parasites) of two types living in…

In this paper, we study a special case of the invasion fitness matrix in a replicator equation: the invader-driven case. In this replicator, each species is defined by its unique active invasiveness potential (initial growth rate when…