相关论文: (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine

We extend techniques and learnings about the stochastic properties of nonlinear responses from finance to medicine, particularly oncology where it can inform dosing and intervention. We define antifragility. We propose uses of risk analysis…

Antifragility characterizes the benefit of a dynamical system derived from the variability in environmental perturbations. Antifragility carries a precise definition that quantifies a system's output response to input variability. Systems…

In natural phenomena, data distributions often deviate from normality. One can think of cataclysms as a self-explanatory example: events that occur almost never, and at the same time are many standard deviations away from the common…

One of the most significant barriers to medication treatment is patients' non-adherence to a prescribed medication regimen. The extent of the impact of poor adherence on resulting health measures is often unknown, and typical analyses…

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health…

This paper presents a functional linear Cox regression model with frailty to tackle unobserved heterogeneity in survival data with functional covariates. While traditional Cox models are common, they struggle to incorporate frailty effects…

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Interfractional geometric uncertainties can lead to deviations of the actual delivered dose from the prescribed dose distribution. To better handle these uncertainties during treatment, the authors propose a dynamic framework for robust…

We develop a general theory of risk measures that determines the optimal amount of capital to raise and invest in a portfolio of reference traded securities in order to meet a pre-specified regulatory requirement. The distinguishing feature…

Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a…

This chapter introduces evolutionary antifragility as the time-scale interaction characteristics of a natural dynamic system. It describes the benefit derived from input distribution unevenness, based on the emergent system dynamics and its…

Stratifying factors, like age and gender, can modify the effect of treatments and exposures on risk of a studied outcome. Several effect measures, including the relative risk, hazard ratio, odds ratio, and risk difference, can be used to…

Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in…

Hazard ratios are often used to evaluate time to event outcomes, but they may be hard to interpret. A particular issue arise because hazards are typically estimated conditional on survival, i.e.\ on left truncated samples. Then, hazard…

Optimization of conditional convex risk measure is a central theme in dynamic portfolio selection theory, which has not yet systematically studied in the previous literature perhaps since conditional convex risk measures are neither random…

We address the problem of survival regression modelling with multivariate responses and nonlinear covariate effects. Our model extends the proportional hazards model by introducing several weakly-parametric elements: the marginal baseline…

Recently, literature on dynamic coherent risk measures has broadened the choices for risk-sensitive performance evaluation. A running example includes Cumulative prospect theory and Conditional variance at risk. Most of them can be can be…

Dynamic treatment regimes are of growing interest across the clinical sciences as these regimes provide one way to operationalize and thus inform sequential personalized clinical decision making. A dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of…

We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive "vega") and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We…

In this paper, we study convex risk measures with weak optimal transport penalties. In a first step, we show that these risk measures allow for an explicit representation via a nonlinear transform of the loss function. In a second step, we…