相关论文: Bayesian Tabulation Audits: Explained and Extended
In this paper we present a business case carried out in Poste Italiane, in the context of fair performance evaluations of human resources engaged in internal audit activities. In addition to the development of a Bayesian network supporting…
The problem of testing mutually exclusive hypotheses with dependent test statistics is considered. Bayesian and frequentist approaches to multiplicity control are studied and compared to help gain understanding as to the effect of test…
Binary observations are often repeated to improve data quality, creating technical replicates. Several scoring methods are commonly used to infer the actual individual state and obtain a probability for each state. The common practice of…
Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…
Threshold tests have recently been proposed as a useful method for detecting bias in lending, hiring, and policing decisions. For example, in the case of credit extensions, these tests aim to estimate the bar for granting loans to white and…
The paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model for simultaneous inference of tournament graphs and informant error. From multiple informant reports or measurement instrument outputs, the model estimates the structure of a criterion (i.e.,…
Quality by design in pharmaceutical manufacturing hinges on computational methods and tools that are capable of accurate quantitative prediction of the design space. This paper investigates Bayesian approaches to design space…
An election audit is risk-limiting if the audit limits (to a pre-specified threshold) the chance that an erroneous electoral outcome will be certified. Extant methods for auditing instant-runoff voting (IRV) elections are either not…
The features of a logically sound approach to a theory of statistical reasoning are discussed. A particular approach that satisfies these criteria is reviewed. This is seen to involve selection of a model, model checking, elicitation of a…
We focus on the scenario in which an agent can exploit his information advantage to manipulate the outcome of an election. In particular, we study district-based elections with two candidates, in which the winner of the election is the…
In data analysis, unexpected results often prompt researchers to revisit their procedures to identify potential issues. While some researchers may struggle to identify the root causes, experienced researchers can often quickly diagnose…
Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…
There is a considerable amount of ongoing research on the use of Bayesian control charts for detecting a shift from a good quality distribution to a bad quality distribution in univariate and multivariate processes. It is widely claimed…
Verifying the correctness of Bayesian computation is challenging. This is especially true for complex models that are common in practice, as these require sophisticated model implementations and algorithms. In this paper we introduce…
We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…
Several measures of partisan bias are reviewed for single member districts with two dominant parties. These include variants of the simple bias that considers only deviation of seats from 50% at statewide 50% vote. Also included are…
In this chapter, we will first present the most standard computational challenges met in Bayesian Statistics, focussing primarily on mixture estimation and on model choice issues, and then relate these problems with computational solutions.…
In this paper, we propose an explicit closed-form Bayes factor for the problem of two-sample hypothesis testing. The proposed approach can be regarded as a Bayesian version of the pooled-variance t-statistic and has various appealing…
Evaluating a country's sporting success provides insight into its decision-making and infrastructure for developing athletic talent. The Olympic Games serve as a global benchmark, yet conventional medal rankings can be unduly influenced by…
In the traditional voting manipulation literature, it is assumed that a group of manipulators jointly misrepresent their preferences to get a certain candidate elected, while the remaining voters are truthful. In this paper, we depart from…