相关论文: Estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitu…

Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…

Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

We modify the new method for the statistical estimation of the tail distribution of earthquake seismic moments introduced by Pisarenko et al. [2009] and apply it to the earthquake catalog of Japan (1923-2007). The method is based on the two…

The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event.…

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been…

Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…

The increasing rate in earth quakes in the Netherlands is attributed to the enhanced depletion of Groningen natural gas, currently at a rate of 50 billion m3 per year. We performed a model-independent analysis of the earth quake event…

We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…

We propose that the widely observed and universal Gutenberg-Richter relation is a mathematical consequence of the critical branching nature of earthquake process in a brittle fracture environment. These arguments, though preliminary, are…

The evaluation of the $b$ value of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, for a sample composed of $n$ earthquakes, presents a systematic positive bias $\delta b$ which is proportional to $1/n$, as already observed by Ogata \& Yamashina (1986). In…

Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle…

The idea of the global daily magnitude (GDM, unit designation is Mg) of earthquakes is introduced. The formula is given for calculating Mg from earthquake strength data, characterized by the classic magnitude M on the Richter scale. An…

Power-law type distributions are extensively found when studying the behaviour of many complex systems. However, due to limitations in data acquisition, empirical datasets often only cover a narrow range of observation, making it difficult…

Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…

A systematic quantitative investigation into whether the mechanisms of large earthquakes are unique could significantly deepen our understanding of fault rupture and seismicity patterns. This research holds the potential to advance our…

The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), above completeness magnitude mc, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. The parameter mc however varies in space due to the seismic network configuration,…

Earthquakes are commonly estimated using physical seismic stations, however, due to the installation requirements and costs of these stations, global coverage quickly becomes impractical. An efficient and lower-cost alternative is to…

The study of the extreme weather space events is important for a technological dependent society. Extreme Value Theory could be decisive to characterize those extreme events in order to have the knowledge to make decisions in technological,…

A new non-parametric statistic is introduced for the characterization of deviations from power laws. It is tested on the distribution of seismic energies given by the Gutenberg-Richter law. Based on the two first statistical log-moments, it…