相关论文: A note on the role of projectivity in likelihood-b…

Models allowing for random heterogeneity, such as mixed logit and latent class, are generally observed to obtain superior model fit and yield detailed insights into unobserved preference heterogeneity. Using theoretical arguments and two…

An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully…

The maximum-likelihood estimator of nonlinear panel data models with fixed effects is consistent but asymptotically-biased under rectangular-array asymptotics. The literature has thus far concentrated its effort on devising methods to…

The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

We present a streamlined proof of the foundational result in the theory of exponential random graph models (ERGMs) that the maximum likelihood estimate exists if and only if the target statistic lies in the relative interior of the convex…

This is an up-to-date introduction to, and overview of, marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing. Computing normalizing constants of probability models (or ratio of constants) is a fundamental issue in many…

Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This…

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

The growth of machine learning as a field has been accelerating with increasing interest and publications across fields, including statistics, but predominantly in computer science. How can we parse this vast literature for developments…

Cognitive modelling shares many features with statistical modelling, making it seem trivial to borrow from the practices of robust Bayesian statistics to protect the practice of robust cognitive modelling. We take one aspect of statistical…

A crucial assumption in most statistical learning theory is that samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, for many real applications, the i.i.d. assumption does not hold. We consider learning problems in…

Estimating the matrix of connections probabilities is one of the key questions when studying sparse networks. In this work, we consider networks generated under the sparse graphon model and the in-homogeneous random graph model with missing…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification for graph-structured data, or, more specifically, the problem to quantify the predictive uncertainty in (semi-supervised) node classification. Key questions in this regard concern the…

Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models…

For a multinomial distribution, suppose that we have prior knowledge of the sum of the probabilities of some categories. This allows us to construct a submodel in a full (i.e., no-restriction) model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)…

In this work, we consider an extension of graphical models to random graphs, trees, and other objects. To do this, many fundamental concepts for multivariate random variables (e.g., marginal variables, Gibbs distribution, Markov properties)…

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, also known as the fatigue-life distribution, is frequently used in reliability studies. We obtain adjustments to the Birnbaum--Saunders profile likelihood function. The modified versions of the likelihood…