A structural model of intuitive probability
Other Computer Science
2011-08-25 v1 Computational Complexity
Abstract
Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This paper proposes a new model of rarity and randomness assessment, designed to be cognitively plausible. Intuitive randomness is defined as a function of structural complexity. It is thus possible to assign probability to events without being obliged to consider the set of alternatives. The model is tested on Lottery sequences and compared with subjects' preferences.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1108.4884,
title = {A structural model of intuitive probability},
author = {Jean-Louis Dessalles},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1108.4884},
year = {2011}
}
Comments
jld-06020601; Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on Cognitive Modeling, Trieste, IT : Italy (2006)