相关论文: Statistical Analysis of Precipitation Events
The possibility to study intermittency in a single event of high multiplicity is investigated in the framework of the $\alpha-$model. It is found that, for cascade long enough, the dispersion of intermittency exponents obtained from…
Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…
Searches for faint signals in counting experiments are often encountered in particle physics and astrophysics, as well as in other fields. Many problems can be reduced to the case of a model with independent and Poisson-distributed signal…
A fundamental problem in analysis of complex systems is getting a reliable estimate of entropy of their probability distributions over the state space. This is difficult because unsampled states can contribute substantially to the entropy,…
Multitype branching processes with immigration in one type are used to model the dynamics of stage-structured plant populations. Parametric inference is first carried out when count data of all types are observed. Statistical…
Statistical modeling of physical laws connects experiments with mathematical descriptions of natural phenomena. The modeling is based on the probability density of measured variables expressed by experimental data via a kernel estimator. As…
Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…
We investigate the distribution and multiple occurrences of extreme events stochastic processes constructed by sampling the solution of a Stochastic Differential Equation on $\mathbb{R}^n$. We do so by studying the action of an annealead…
Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…
This paper extends Bayesian probability theory by developing a multidimensional space of events (MDSE) theory that accounts for mutual influences between events and hypotheses sets. While traditional Bayesian approaches assume conditional…
Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…
A model for the phenomenological description of tick-by-tick share prices in a stock exchange is introduced. It is based on mixtures of compound Poisson processes. Preliminary results based on Monte Carlo simulation show that this model can…
Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…
We describe five types of results concerning information and concentration of discrete random variables, and relationships between them, motivated by their counterparts in the continuous case. The results we consider are information…
The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…
Heterogeneous data from multiple populations, sub-groups, or sources is often represented as a ``mixture model'' with a single latent class influencing all of the observed covariates. Heterogeneity can be resolved at multiple levels by…
Several different types of statistical interaction are defined and distinguished, primarily on the basis of the nature of the factors defining the interaction. Illustrative examples, mostly epidemiological, are given. The emphasis is…
Climate change is intensifying rainfall extremes, making high-resolution precipitation projections crucial for society to better prepare for impacts such as flooding. However, current Global Climate Models (GCMs) operate at spatial…