相关论文: Statistical Analysis of Precipitation Events
Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…
In this paper, two parametric probability distributions capable to describe the statistics of X-ray photon detection by a CCD are presented. They are formulated from simple models that account for the pile-up phenomenon, in which two or…
The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…
Precipitation is a complex physical process that varies in space and time. Predictions and interpolations at unobserved times and/or locations help to solve important problems in many areas. In this paper, we present a hierarchical Bayesian…
The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…
A new two-parameter discrete distribution, namely the PoiG distribution is derived by the convolution of a Poisson variate and an independently distributed geometric random variable. This distribution generalizes both the Poisson and…
The paper presents improved mathematical models and methods for statistical regularities in the behavior of some important characteristics of precipitation: duration of a wet period, maximum daily and total precipitation volumes within a…
At least one unusual event appears in some count datasets. It will lead to a more concentrated (or dispersed) distribution than the Poisson, the gamma, the Weibull, and the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) can accommodate. These well-known…
Inter-event times of various human behavior are apparently non-Poissonian and obey long-tailed distributions as opposed to exponential distributions, which correspond to Poisson processes. It has been suggested that human individuals may…
Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control…
We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…
Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…
Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…
Quantitative understanding of human behaviors provides elementary comprehension of the complexity of many human-initiated systems. A basic assumption embedded in the previous analyses on human dynamics is that its temporal statistics are…
Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or…
This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…
Given a statistical model, we propose a novel estimation method that yields randomised estimators for the unknown distribution of an observed random variable. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the performance of these estimators and…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
The areal modeling of the extremes of a natural process such as rainfall or temperature is important in environmental statistics; for example, understanding extreme areal rainfall is crucial in flood protection. This article reviews recent…
Extreme environmental phenomena such as major precipitation events manifestly exhibit spatial dependence. Max-stable processes are a class of asymptotically-justified models that are capable of representing spatial dependence among extreme…