相关论文: Value-at-Risk Diversification of $\alpha$-stable R…

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…

The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…

This paper studies Pareto-optimal reinsurance design in a monopolistic market with multiple primary insurers and a single reinsurer, all with heterogeneous risk preferences. The risk preferences are characterized by a family of risk…

Based on a recent theorem due to the authors, it is shown how the extreme tail dependence between an asset and a factor or index or between two assets can be easily calibrated. Portfolios constructed with stocks with minimal tail dependence…

This paper contributes to answering a question that is of crucial importance in risk management and extreme value theory: How to select the threshold above which one assumes that the tail of a distribution follows a generalized Pareto…

Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the…

Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…

Real-world data is laden with outlying values. The challenge for machine learning is that the learner typically has no prior knowledge of whether the feedback it receives (losses, gradients, etc.) will be heavy-tailed or not. In this work,…

We consider a new approach in the definition of two-dimensional heavy-tailed distributions. Namely, we introduce the classes of two-dimensional long-tailed, of twodimensional dominatedly varying and of two-dimensional consistently varying…

Tail Gini functional is a measure of tail risk variability for systemic risks, and has many applications in banking, finance and insurance. Meanwhile, there is growing attention on aymptotic independent pairs in quantitative risk…

Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…

We study learning algorithms that seek to minimize the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), when all the learner knows is that the losses incurred may be heavy-tailed. We begin by studying a general-purpose estimator of CVaR for potentially…

Economically responsible mitigation of multivariate extreme risks-such as extreme rainfall over large areas, large simultaneous variations in many stock prices, or widespread breakdowns in transportation systems-requires assessing the…

We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference $\Delta \rho ^{X, Y}_\alpha := \rho _\alpha (X + Y) - \rho _\alpha (X)$ as $\alpha \rightarrow 1$, where $\rho_\alpha $ is a risk measure equipped with a confidence level parameter $0 <…

We consider the evolution of scale-free networks according to preferential attachment schemes and show the conditions for which the exponent characterizing the degree distribution is bounded by upper and lower values. Our framework is an…

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the…