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Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-28 Khoa T. Tran

An important problem in the implementation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms is to determine the convergence time, or the number of iterations before the chain is close to stationarity. For many Markov chains used in practice this time…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2010-07-02 Nayantara Bhatnagar , Andrej Bogdanov , Elchanan Mossel

There are known expressions to calculate the moments of the first passage time in Markov chains. Nevertheless, it is commonly forgotten that in most applications the parameters of the Markov chain are constructed using estimates based upon…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-03-04 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-01-30 R. A. Davis , H. Drees , J. Segers , M. Warchoł

Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Arka Banerjee , Dootika Vats

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a very versatile and widely used tool to compute integrals and expectations. In this short survey we focus on error bounds, rules for choosing the burn in, high dimensional problems and…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-12-03 Erich Novak , Daniel Rudolf

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-11-19 Jeremie Coullon , Leah South , Christopher Nemeth

We compute the eigenvalues and eigenspaces of random-to-random Markov chains. We use a family of maps which reveal a remarkable recursive structure of the eigenspaces, yielding an explicit and effective construction of all eigenbases…

组合数学 · 数学 2017-10-03 A. B. Dieker , Franco Saliola

We develop a general technique, based on a Bochner-type identity, to estimate spectral gaps of a class of Markov operator. We apply this technique to various interacting particle systems. In particular, we give a simple and short proof of…

概率论 · 数学 2010-10-11 Anne-Severine Boudou , Pietro Caputo , Paolo Dai Pra , Gustavo Posta

Spearman's rank correlation test is commonly used in astronomy to discern whether a set of two variables are correlated or not. Unlike most other quantities quoted in astronomical literature, the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2015-06-01 P. A. Curran

A new Monte Carlo algorithm for phase-space sampling, named (MC)**3, is presented. It is based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques but at the same time incorporates prior knowledge about the target distribution in the form of suitable…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2015-06-12 Kevin Kroeninger , Steffen Schumann , Benjamin Willenberg

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-05-05 Flavia Barsotti , Yohann De Castro , Thibault Espinasse , Paul Rochet

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful tool for sampling from complex probability distributions. Despite its versatility, MCMC often suffers from strong autocorrelation and the negative sign problem, leading to slowing down the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2024-12-05 Synge Todo

We study the error of reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the expectation of a function. Explicit error bounds with respect to different norms of the function are proven. By the estimation the well known…

数值分析 · 数学 2011-01-18 Daniel Rudolf

A Monte Carlo method for computing the action of a matrix exponential for a certain class of matrices on a vector is proposed. The method is based on generating random paths, which evolve through the indices of the matrix, governed by a…

数值分析 · 数学 2019-06-19 Juan A. Acebron

A classical problem for Markov chains is determining their stationary (or steady-state) distribution. This problem has an equally classical solution based on eigenvectors and linear equation systems. However, this approach does not scale to…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2023-01-20 Tobias Meggendorfer

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

机器学习 · 统计学 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

We address the problem of estimating the mixing time of a Markov chain from a single trajectory of observations. Unlike most previous works which employed Hilbert space methods to estimate spectral gaps, we opt for an approach based on…

概率论 · 数学 2023-09-13 Geoffrey Wolfer

We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

Let $S_N$ be the sum of vector-valued functions defined on a finite Markov chain. An analogue of the Bernstein--Hoeffding inequality is derived for the probability of large deviations of $S_N$ and relates the probability to the spectral gap…

概率论 · 数学 2009-09-29 Vladislav Kargin