相关论文: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model of Pitch Framing

Statistical modelling in the presence of data organized in groups is a crucial task in Bayesian statistics. The present paper conceives a mixture model based on a novel family of Bayesian priors designed for multilevel data and obtained by…

Major League Baseball (MLB) recently limited pitchers to three pickoff attempts, creating a cat-and-mouse game between pitcher and runner. Each failed attempt adds pressure on the pitcher to avoid using another, and the runner can intensify…

This paper employs a Bayesian methodology to predict the results of soccer matches in real-time. Using sequential data of various events throughout the match, we utilize a multinomial probit regression in a novel framework to estimate the…

We address the value of a baserunner at first base waiting to see if a ball in play falls in for a hit, before running. When a ball is hit in the air, the baserunner will usually wait, to gather additional information as to whether a ball…

Electromagnetic stimulation probes and modulates the neural systems that control movement. Key to understanding their effects is the muscle recruitment curve, which maps evoked potential size against stimulation intensity. Current methods…

Shot charts in basketball analytics provide an indispensable tool for evaluating players' shooting performance by visually representing the distribution of field goal attempts across different court locations. However, conventional methods…

Modelling football outcomes has gained increasing attention, in large part due to the potential for making substantial profits. Despite the strong connection existing between football models and the bookmakers' betting odds, no authors have…

Player performance prediction is a serious problem in every sport since it brings valuable future information for managers to make important decisions. In baseball industries, there already existed variable prediction systems and many types…

Peer grading systems aggregate noisy reports from multiple students to approximate a true grade as closely as possible. Most current systems either take the mean or median of reported grades; others aim to estimate students' grading…

The seminal Bradley-Terry model exhibits transitivity, i.e., the property that the probabilities of player A beating B and B beating C give the probability of A beating C, with these probabilities determined by a skill parameter for each…

The success rate of a basketball shot may be higher at locations where a player makes more shots. For a marked spatial point process, this means that the mark and the intensity are associated. We propose a Bayesian joint model for the mark…

With the NBA's adoption of in-game limb tracking in 2023, Sony's Hawk-Eye system now captures high-resolution, 3D poses of players and the ball 60 times per second. Linking these data to key events opens a new era in NBA analytics. Here, we…

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure…

The level set approach has proven widely successful in the study of inverse problems for interfaces, since its systematic development in the 1990s. Recently it has been employed in the context of Bayesian inversion, allowing for the…

This paper studies posterior concentration behavior of the base probability measure of a Dirichlet measure, given observations associated with the sampled Dirichlet processes, as the number of observations tends to infinity. The base…

Goals are results of pin-point shots and it is a pivotal decision in soccer when, how and where to shoot. The main contribution of this study is two-fold. At first, after showing that there exists high spatial correlation in the data of…

In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected…

The infield shift has been increasingly used as a defensive strategy in baseball in recent years. Along with the upward trend in its usage, the notoriety of the shift has grown, as it is believed to be responsible for the recent decline in…

Using videos to analyze pitchers in baseball can play a vital role in strategizing and injury prevention. Computer vision-based pose analysis offers a time-efficient and cost-effective approach. However, the use of accessible broadcast…