相关论文: Upper bounds on the minimum coverage probability o…

We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of…

We study the behavior of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional Bayesian Gaussian linear regression models having $p\gg n$, with $p$ the number of predictors and $n$ the sample size. Our focus is on obtaining quantitative finite…

Simultaneous occurrences of extreme events need not imply symmetric or reciprocal tail dependence. However, most existing measures of extremal dependence are inherently symmetric and hence often fail to capture directional influence in tail…

In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…

In this work, we develop a constructive modeling framework for extreme threshold exceedances in repeated observations of spatial fields, based on general product mixtures of random fields possessing light or heavy-tailed margins and various…

This short study presents an opportunistic approach to a (more) reliable validation method for prediction uncertainty average calibration. Considering that variance-based calibration metrics (ZMS, NLL, RCE...) are quite sensitive to the…

We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…

This paper provides a general technique for lower bounding the Bayes risk of statistical estimation, applicable to arbitrary loss functions and arbitrary prior distributions. A lower bound on the Bayes risk not only serves as a lower bound…

We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…

Meta-analyses of diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) studies have been gathering attention in research in clinical epidemiology and health technology development, and bivariate random-effects model is becoming a standard tool. However, standard…

The relationship between a response variable and its covariates can vary significantly, especially in scenarios where covariates take on extremely high or low values. This paper introduces a max-linear tail regression model specifically…

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

This article proposes a new method of truncated estimation to estimate the tail index $\alpha$ of the extremely heavy-tailed distribution with infinite mean or variance. We not only present two truncated estimators $\hat{\alpha}$ and…

High-dimensional data subject to heavy-tailed phenomena and heterogeneity are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and bring new challenges to the classical statistical methods. In this paper, we combine the asymmetric square…

For the problem of estimating lower tail and upper tail copulas, we propose two bootstrap procedures for approximating the distribution of the corresponding empirical tail copulas. The first method uses a multiplier bootstrap of the…

Classical models for multivariate or spatial extremes are mainly based upon the asymptotically justified max-stable or generalized Pareto processes. These models are suitable when asymptotic dependence is present, i.e., the joint tail…

The Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator is among the most popular nonparameteric regression technique thanks to its simplicity. Its asymptotic bias has been studied by Rosenblatt in 1969 and has been reported in a number of related literature.…

A fundamental problem in analysis of complex systems is getting a reliable estimate of entropy of their probability distributions over the state space. This is difficult because unsampled states can contribute substantially to the entropy,…

By introducing a weight function into the density power divergence, we develop a new class of robust and smooth estimators for the tail index of Pareto-type distributions, offering improved efficiency in the presence of outliers. These…

Two non-intrusive uncertainty propagation approaches are proposed for the performance analysis of engineering systems described by expensive-to-evaluate deterministic computer models with parameters defined as interval variables. These…