相关论文: Upper bounds on the minimum coverage probability o…

We propose a Bayesian copula-based framework to quantify clinically interpretable joint tail risks from paired continuous biomarkers. After converting each biomarker margin to rank-based pseudo-observations, we model dependence using…

The upper bounds on the coverage probabilities of the confidence regions based on blockwise empirical likelihood [Kitamura (1997)] and nonstandard expansive empirical likelihood [Nordman et al. (2013)] methods for time series data are…

Signal processing makes extensive use of point estimators and accompanying error bounds. These work well up until the likelihood function has two or more high peaks. When it is important for an estimator to remain reliable, it becomes…

We introduce a new actuarial tail-shape index, the $\theta$-index, based on a probability equal level relationship between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The index is defined at each tail probability level as the parameter value for…

It is the purpose of this paper to investigate the issue of estimating the regularity index $\beta>0$ of a discrete heavy-tailed r.v. $S$, \textit{i.e.} a r.v. $S$ valued in $\mathbb{N}^*$ such that $\mathbb{P}(S>n)=L(n)\cdot n^{-\beta}$…

The analysis of extremal dependence in high dimensions has recently attracted considerable interest. Existing methodology primarily focuses on modeling and estimation of extremal dependence structures, often supported by concentration…

We propose a novel approach for detecting change points in high-dimensional linear regression models. Unlike previous research that relied on strict Gaussian/sub-Gaussian error assumptions and had prior knowledge of change points, we…

In the recent paper [5], a Bayesian approach for constructing confidence intervals in monotone regression problems is proposed, based on credible intervals. We view this method from a frequentist point of view, and show that it corresponds…

In the Bayesian literature, a line of research called resolution of conflict is about the characterization of robustness against outliers of statistical models. The robustness characterization of a model is achieved by establishing the…

The prediction interval has been increasingly used in meta-analyses as a useful measure for assessing the magnitude of treatment effect and between-studies heterogeneity. In calculations of the prediction interval, although the…

Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…

The upper tail of a claim size distribution of a property line of business is frequently modelled by Pareto distribution. However, the upper tail does not need to be Pareto distributed, extraordinary shapes are possible. Here, the…

We compute the tail asymptotics of the product of a beta random variable and a generalized gamma random variable which are independent and have general parameters. A special case of these asymptotics were proved and used in a recent work of…

We propose a method to remedy finite sample coverage problems and improve upon the efficiency of commonly employed procedures for the construction of nonparametric confidence intervals in regression kink designs. The proposed interval is…

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

We propose a class of weighted least squares estimators for the tail index of a distribution function with a regularly varying upper tail. Our approach is based on the method developed by \cite{Holan2010} for the Parzen tail index.…

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…

The key to successful statistical analysis of bivariate extreme events lies in flexible modelling of the tail dependence relationship between the two variables. In the extreme value theory literature, various techniques are available to…

We analyze the tail behavior of solutions to sample average approximations (SAAs) of stochastic programs posed in Hilbert spaces. We require that the integrand be strongly convex with the same convexity parameter for each realization.…