相关论文: Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fert…
The United Nations (UN) Population Division is considering producing probabilistic projections for the total fertility rate (TFR) using the Bayesian hierarchical model of Alkema et al. (2011), which produces predictive distributions of TFR…
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rates (TFR) for all countries, and is widely used, including as part of the basis for the UN's official population…
Since the 1940s, population projections have in most cases been produced using the deterministic cohort component method. However, in 2015, for the first time, in a major advance, the United Nations issued official probabilistic population…
The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a more persistent low-fertility regime. Existing projection…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…
The abrupt decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Puerto Rico since 2000 makes the prospect of a sustained population decline a real possibility. From 2000 to 2021 the TFR declined from 2.1 to 0.9 children per woman, one of the lowest…
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
Accurate fertility estimates at fine spatial resolution are essential for localized public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While national-level indicators such as age-specific fertility rates…
Is it possible to reverse the low total fertility rate (TFR) in the developed world? Using a hypothetical model of population we have analysed the decline of the TFR which have took place in the background of ongoing global economic…
Estimation of stillbirth rates globally is complicated because of the paucity of reliable data from countries where most stillbirths occur. We compiled data and developed a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model for…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…
Reducing the global burden of stillbirths is important to improving child and maternal health. Of interest is understanding patterns in the timing of stillbirths -- that is, whether they occur in the intra- or antepartum period -- because…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we…
Engaging the private sector in contraceptive method supply is critical for creating equitable, sustainable, and accessible healthcare systems. To achieve this, it is essential to understand where women obtain their modern contraceptives.…
Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. The UN's sustainable development goal 3.7.1 proposes satisfying the demand for family planning (FP) services by increasing…