相关论文: Cointegrated Continuous-time Linear State Space an…

This paper introduces the novel class of modulated cyclostationary processes, a class of non-stationary processes exhibiting frequency coupling, and proposes a method of their estimation from repeated trials. Cyclostationary processes also…

We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models (McGLMs), designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial…

Linear time series modelling is dominated by the use of purely autoregressive models even though incorporating moving average components can greatly improve parsimony. We present a convex formulation for vector-ARMA system identification…

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

State space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a powerful framework for long sequence processing, outperforming traditional methods on diverse benchmarks. Fundamentally, SSMs can generalize both recurrent and convolutional networks and…

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

This study evaluates the performance of cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models for very short- and short-term wind power forecasting. Preliminary results for a German data set comprising six wind power production time series…

Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average (VARMA) models form a powerful and general model class for analyzing dynamics among multiple time series. While VARMA models encompass the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models, their popularity in…

The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…

Multivariate time series present many challenges, especially when they are high dimensional. The paper's focus is twofold. First, we address the subject of consistently estimating the autocovariance sequence; this is a sequence of matrices…

In the study of complex physical and biological systems represented by multivariate stochastic processes, an issue of great relevance is the description of the system dynamics spanning multiple temporal scales. While methods to assess the…

Advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have led to the enormous recent burgeoning of spatial-temporal databases and associated statistical modeling. Here we depart from the rather rich literature in space-time modeling by…

We advocate the use of an Indirect Inference method to estimate the parameter of a COGARCH(1,1) process for equally spaced observations. This requires that the true model can be simulated and a reasonable estimation method for an…

We study the class of semi-Levy driven continuous-time GARCH, denoted by SLD-COGARCH, process. The statistical properties of this process are characterized. We show that the state process of such process can be described by a random…

As a special infinite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model can capture much richer temporal patterns than the widely used finite-order VAR model. However, its practicality has long…

In this paper, we discuss information-theoretic tools for obtaining optimized coarse-grained molecular models for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics. The latter are ubiquitous in physicochemical and biological…

State space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modeling complex time series via a latent stochastic process. Inference for nonlinear, non-Gaussian SSMs is often tackled with particle methods that do not scale well to long time…

Motivated by the maneuvering target tracking with sensors such as radar and sonar, this paper considers the joint and recursive estimation of the dynamic state and the time-varying process noise covariance in nonlinear state space models.…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…

In the literature on nonlinear cointegration, a long-standing open problem relates to how a (nonlinear) vector autoregression, which provides a unified description of the short- and long-run dynamics of a vector of time series, can generate…