相关论文: Cointegrated Continuous-time Linear State Space an…
We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…
In this paper, approximate Linear Minimum Variance (LMV) filters for continuous-discrete state space models are introduced. The filters are obtained by means of a recursive approximation to the predictions for the first two moments of the…
Discrete-time input/output models, also called infinite impulse response (IIR) models or autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, are useful for online identification as they can be efficiently updated using recursive least squares…
We present a re-parameterization of vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models that allows estimation of parameters under the constraints of causality and invertibility. The parameter constraints associated with a causal invertible…
We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…
We analyze a stochastic process resulting from the normalization of states in the zeroth-order optimization method CMA-ES. On a specific class of minimization problems where the objective function is scaling-invariant, this process defines…
Continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) process driven by simple semi-L\'evy process has periodically correlated property with many potential application in finance. In this paper, we study on the estimation of the parameters…
State convergence is essential in several scientific areas, e.g. multi-agent consensus/disagreement, distributed optimization, monotone game theory, multi-agent learning over time-varying networks. This paper is the first on state…
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…
The electricity sector is undergoing substantial transformations due to the rising electrification of demand, enhanced integration of renewable energy resources, and the emergence of new technologies. These changes are rendering the…
In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…
Integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (INGARCH) models are a popular framework for modeling serial dependence in count time-series. While convenient for modeling, prediction, and estimation, INGARCH models…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
Multivariate dynamic time series models are widely encountered in practical studies, e.g., modelling policy transmission mechanism and measuring connectedness between economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper proposes a…
We consider linear time invariant systems with exogenous stochastic disturbances, and in feedback with structured stochastic uncertainties. This setting encompasses linear systems with both additive and multiplicative noise. Our concern is…
Linear State Space Modeling determines the hidden autoregressive (AR) process in a noisy time series; for an AR process the time series' current value is the sum of current stochastic ``noise'' and a linear combination of previous values.…
One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…
Timed Concurrent State Machines are an application of Alur's Timed Automata concept to coincidence-based (rather than interleaving) CSM modeling technique. TCSM support the idea of testing automata, allowing to specify time properties…
We introduce and explore a new class of stationary time series models for variance matrices based on a constructive definition exploiting inverse Wishart distribution theory. The main class of models explored is a novel class of stationary,…