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Forecasting extreme precipitation is essential yet challenging due to its rarity and complexity. We develop a large deviation framework to estimate the return times of extreme precipitation events. We first find that the Landau…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-04-14 Haotian Xie , Haoxian Liu , Jingfang Fan , Ying Tang

Subsampling methods have been recently proposed to speed up least squares estimation in large scale settings. However, these algorithms are typically not robust to outliers or corruptions in the observed covariates. The concept of influence…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-06-20 Brian McWilliams , Gabriel Krummenacher , Mario Lucic , Joachim M. Buhmann

Ridge regression is a popular method for dense least squares regularization. In this work, ridge regression is studied in the context of VAR model estimation and inference. The implications of anisotropic penalization are discussed and a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Giovanni Ballarin

As the most fundamental problem in statistics, robust location estimation has many prominent solutions, such as the trimmed mean, Winsorized mean, Hodges Lehmann estimator, Huber M estimator, and median of means. Recent studies suggest that…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-12 Li Tuobang

A comprehensive approach to protect river water quality is needed within the European Water Framework Directive. Non-target screening of a complete chemical fingerprint of the aquatic ecosystem is essential, to identify chemicals of…

Extreme precipitation causes severe societal and economic damage, and weather control has long been discussed as a potential mitigation strategy. However, to the best of our knowledge, perturbation-based interventions for weather control…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Ayumu Ueyama , Kazuhiko Kawamoto , Hiroshi Kera

To facilitate effective decision-making, precipitation datasets should include uncertainty estimates. Quantile regression with machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. Distributional regression offers distinct…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-07 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Nikolaos Doulamis , Anastasios Doulamis

The angular measure on the unit sphere characterizes the first-order dependence structure of the components of a random vector in extreme regions and is defined in terms of standardized margins. Its statistical recovery is an important step…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-20 Stéphane Lhaut , Johan Segers

Optimal transport is widely used to learn distributions, enforce distributional constraints, and model uncertainty. In applications, transport losses are often computed from samples through tractable representations, such as one-dimensional…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-05-28 Tam Le

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is used as a powerful data collection technique for situations where measuring the study variable requires a costly and/or tedious process while the sampling units can be ranked easily (e.g., osteoporosis…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-18 Andrew David Pearce , Armin Hatefi

Anomaly localization in images -- identifying regions that deviate from normal patterns -- is vital in applications such as medical diagnosis and industrial inspection. A recent trend is the use of image generation models in anomaly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-28 Teruyuki Katsuoka , Tomohiro Shiraishi , Daiki Miwa , Vo Nguyen Le Duy , Ichiro Takeuchi

The flooding extent area in a river valley is related to river gauge observations. The higher the water elevation, the larger the flooding area. Due to synthetic aperture radar\textquoteright s (SAR) capabilities to penetrate through…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-14 Monika Gierszewska , Tomasz Berezowski

In data analysis, contamination caused by outliers is inevitable, and robust statistical methods are strongly demanded. In this paper, our concern is to develop a new approach for robust data analysis based on scoring rules. The scoring…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-11-22 Takafumi Kanamori , Hironori Fujisawa

Statistical estimation in many contemporary settings involves the acquisition, analysis, and aggregation of datasets from multiple sources, which can have significant differences in character and in value. Due to these variations, the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2014-12-23 Quentin Berthet , Venkat Chandrasekaran

Spatial fields in the Earth and environmental sciences are often available at multiple scales or resolutions. While coarse-scale data (e.g., from global circulation models) are often abundant, they lack the local detail provided by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Alejandro Calle-Saldarriaga , Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Rectified flow (Liu et al., 2022; Liu, 2022; Wu et al., 2023) is a method for defining a transport map between two distributions, and enjoys popularity in machine learning, although theoretical results supporting the validity of these…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-12-11 Gonzalo Mena , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Larry Wasserman

Flooding is a destructive and dangerous hazard and climate change appears to be increasing the frequency of catastrophic flooding events around the world. Physics-based flood models are costly to calibrate and are rarely generalizable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-16 Chelsea Sidrane , Dylan J Fitzpatrick , Andrew Annex , Diane O'Donoghue , Yarin Gal , Piotr Biliński

Hydroelectric power generation is a critical component of the global energy matrix, particularly in countries like Brazil, where it represents the majority of the energy supply. However, its strong dependence on river discharges, which are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-19 Julio Alberto Silva Dias

Fine resolution estimates of demographic and socioeconomic attributes are crucial for planning and policy development. While several efforts have been made to produce fine-scale gridded population estimates, socioeconomic features are…

Monitoring water stage and discharge at hydrometric stations is essential for flood characterization and prediction. Continuous measurement is feasible for stage records, whereas discharge must be calculated, typically using a rating curve.…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-01-15 Mendez Rios , Jérôme Le Coz , Renard Benjamin , Terraz Théophile