相关论文: Simplification of inclusion-exclusion on intersect…

The evaluation of the probability of union of a large number of independent events requires several combinations involving the factorial and the use of high performance computers with several hours of processing. Bounds and simplifications…

We consider the problem of exact probabilistic inference for Union of Conjunctive Queries (UCQs) on tuple-independent databases. For this problem, two approaches currently coexist. In the extensional method, query evaluation is performed by…

Randomized higher-order computation can be seen as being captured by a lambda calculus endowed with a single algebraic operation, namely a construct for binary probabilistic choice. What matters about such computations is the probability of…

Network reliability is the probability that a dynamical system composed of discrete elements interacting on a network will be found in a configuration that satisfies a particular property. We introduce a new reliability property, Ising…

In this note, we present a conjecture on intersections of set families, and a rephrasing of the conjecture in terms of principal downsets of Boolean lattices. The conjecture informally states that, whenever we can express the measure of a…

Estimating the probability of failures or accidents with aerospace systems is often necessary when new concepts or designs are introduced, as it is being done for Autonomous Aircraft. If the design is safe, as it is supposed to be, accident…

Probability intervals are an attractive tool for reasoning under uncertainty. Unlike belief functions, though, they lack a natural probability transformation to be used for decision making in a utility theory framework. In this paper we…

Networks play a central role in modern data analysis, enabling us to reason about systems by studying the relationships between their parts. Most often in network analysis, the edges are given. However, in many systems it is difficult or…

We revisit the computation of a probability of collision in the context of automotive collision avoidance (also referred to as conflict detection in other contexts). After reviewing existing approaches to the definition and computation of a…

In earlier work the authors obtained integral formulas for probabilities for a single particle in the asymmetric simple exclusion process. Here formulas are obtained for joint probabilities for several particles. In the case of a single…

In this paper, we develop efficient randomized algorithms for estimating probabilistic robustness margin and constructing robustness degradation curve for uncertain dynamic systems. One remarkable feature of these algorithms is their…

The systems that statisticians are asked to assess, such as nuclear weapons, infrastructure networks, supercomputer codes and munitions, have become increasingly complex. It is often costly to conduct full system tests. As such, we present…

Reconstructing the structural connectivity between interacting units from observed activity is a challenge across many different disciplines. The fundamental first step is to establish whether or to what extent the interactions between the…

We propose a computational framework to quantify (measure) and to optimize the reliability of complex systems. The approach uses a graph representation of the system that is subject to random failures of its components (nodes and edges).…

E.T. Jaynes, originator of the maximum entropy interpretation of statistical mechanics, emphasized that there is an inevitable trade-off between the conflicting requirements of robustness and accuracy for any inferencing algorithm. This is…

We establish the incompressible limit of weakly asymmetric simple exclusion processes coupled through particle collisions. The incompressible limit depends on various parameters in the particle system and is linked to fluid dynamics…

Mechanisms for the automation of uncertainty are required for expert systems. Sometimes these mechanisms need to obey the properties of probabilistic reasoning. A purely numeric mechanism, like those proposed so far, cannot provide a…

Statistical uncertainties complicate engineering design -- confounding regulated design approaches, and degrading the performance of reliability efforts. The simplest means to tackle this uncertainty is double loop simulation; a nested…

In this paper we obtain general integral formulas for probabilities in the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) on the integer lattice with nearest neighbor hopping rates p to the right and q=1-p to the left. For the most part we…

We present a study of exclusion process on a peculiar topology of network with two intersected lanes, competing for the particles in a reservoir with finite capacity. To provide a theoretical ground for our findings, we exploit mean-field…