相关论文: The choice of effect measure for binary outcomes: …

Comparative binary outcome data are of fundamental interest in statistics and are often pooled in meta-analyses. Here we examine the simplest case where for each study there are two patient groups and a binary event of interest, giving rise…

Stratifying factors, like age and gender, can modify the effect of treatments and exposures on risk of a studied outcome. Several effect measures, including the relative risk, hazard ratio, odds ratio, and risk difference, can be used to…

Across domains such as medicine, employment, and criminal justice, predictive models often target labels that imperfectly reflect the outcomes of interest to experts and policymakers. For example, clinical risk assessments deployed to…

We develop a general framework for the identification of counterfactual parameters in a class of nonlinear semiparametric panel models with fixed effects and time effects. Our method applies to models for discrete outcomes (e.g., two-way…

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, e.g. absolute versus relative, is often debated because it leads to…

A measure of association is said to be collapsible over a set of baseline covariates if the marginal value of the measure of association is equal to a weighted average of the stratum-specific measures of association. In this paper, we…

Retrospective causal questions ask what would have happened to an observed individual had they received a different treatment. We study the problem of estimating $\mu(x,y)=\mathbb{E}[Y(1)\mid X=x,Y(0)=y]$, the expected counterfactual…

Two broad positions within statistics define a treatment effect, on the one hand, as a parameter of a statistical model, and on the other, as an appropriate population-level difference in outcomes or counterfactual outcomes under the…

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

There are a number of measures of direct and indirect effects in the literature. They are suitable in some cases and unsuitable in others. We describe a case where the existing measures are unsuitable and propose new suitable ones. We also…

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference…

How should we evaluate the effect of a policy on the likelihood of an undesirable event, such as conflict? The significance test has three limitations. First, relying on statistical significance misses the fact that uncertainty is a…

We investigate the task of estimating the conditional average causal effect of treatment-dosage pairs from a combination of observational data and assumptions on the causal relationships in the underlying system. This has been a…

Comparing counterfactual distributions can provide more nuanced and valuable measures for causal effects, going beyond typical summary statistics such as averages. In this work, we consider characterizing causal effects via distributional…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

Suppose we have a binary treatment used to influence an outcome. Given data from an observational or controlled study, we wish to determine whether or not there exists some subset of observed covariates in which the treatment is more…

One fundamental statistical question for research areas such as precision medicine and health disparity is about discovering effect modification of treatment or exposure by observed covariates. We propose a semiparametric framework for…