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The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

In this paper, we consider a stochastic system described by a differential equation admitting a spatially varying random coefficient. The differential equation has been employed to model various static physics systems such as elastic…

概率论 · 数学 2013-09-18 Jingchen Liu , Xiang Zhou

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

Let $X(t),t\in R^d$ be a centered Gaussian random field with continuous trajectories and set $\xi_u(t)= X(f(u)t),t\in R^d$ with $f$ some positive function. Classical results establish the tail asymptotics of $P\{ \Gamma(\xi_u) > u\}$ as…

概率论 · 数学 2017-06-09 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Peng Liu

In this contribution we are concerned with the asymptotic behaviour as $u\to \infty$ of $\mathbb{P}\{\sup_{t\in [0,T]} X_u(t)> u\}$, where $X_u(t),t\in [0,T],u>0$ is a family of centered Gaussian processes with continuous trajectories. A…

概率论 · 数学 2017-01-20 L. Bai , K. Debicki , E. Hashorva , L. Ji

We consider two independent random variables with the given tail asymptotic (e.g. power or exponential). We find tail asymptotic for their sum and product. This is done by some cumbersome but purely technical computations and requires the…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-09 Andrey Sarantsev

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

统计理论 · 数学 2013-12-20 J. L. Wadsworth , J. A. Tawn

These notes were written for the mini-course "Extrema of log-correlated random variables: Principles and Examples" at the Introductory School held in January 2015 at the Centre International de Rencontres Math\'ematiques in Marseille. There…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-05 Louis-Pierre Arguin

The risk of occurrence of atypical phenomena is a cross-cutting concern in several areas, such as engineering, climatology, finance, actuarial, among others. Extreme value theory is the natural tool to approach this theme. Many of these…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-07-09 Marta Ferreira , Ana Paula Martins , Helena Ferreira

We introduce a new functional measure of tail dependence for weakly dependent (asymptotically independent) random vectors, termed weak tail dependence function. The new measure is defined at the level of copulas and we compute it for…

概率论 · 数学 2016-01-27 Peter Tankov

Due to globalization and relaxed market regulation, we have assisted to an increasing of extremal dependence in international markets. As a consequence, several measures of tail dependence have been stated in literature in recent years,…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-08-10 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2018-10-09 E. Hashorva

This is the first of a three paper series in which we present a comprehensive study of the extreme value theory of the scale-inhomogeneous discrete Gaussian free field. This model was introduced by Arguin and Ouimet who computed the first…

概率论 · 数学 2020-08-04 Maximilian Fels

Let (RU_1, R U_2) be a given bivariate scale mixture random vector, with R>0 being independent of the bivariate random vector (U_1,U_2). In this paper we derive exact asymptotic expansions of the tail probability P{RU_1> x, RU_2> ax}, a \in…

概率论 · 数学 2013-05-14 Enkelejd Hashorva

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

概率论 · 数学 2019-05-21 Sam Justice , N. D. Shyamalkumar

We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of…

概率论 · 数学 2009-06-29 Abhimanyu Mitra , Sidney I. Resnick

Depending on a parameter $h\in (0,1]$, let $\{X_h(\mathbf{t})$, $\mathbf{t}\in\mathcal{M}_h\}$ be a class of centered Gaussian fields indexed by compact manifolds $\mathcal{M}_h$. For locally stationary Gaussian fields $X_h$, we study the…

概率论 · 数学 2020-05-15 Wanli Qiao

Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-10-05 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the ratio of two jointly alpha-Frechet random variables to be regularly varying. This condition is based on the spectral representation of the joint distribution and is easy to check in…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-02-04 Yizao Wang

Let $\boldsymbol{X}(t)=(X_1(t),\ldots,X_d(t)), t\in [0,S]$ be a Gaussian vector process and let $g(\boldsymbol{x}),\boldsymbol{x}\in\mathbb{R}^d$ be a continuous homogeneous function. In this paper we are concerned with the exact tail…

概率论 · 数学 2018-07-04 Long Bai