相关论文: A regional compound Poisson process for hurricane …

Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to study the probabilistic relationships among set random variables with major applications in disease modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a continuous time Bayesian network with…

The Log-Gaussian Cox Process is a commonly used model for the analysis of spatial point patterns. Fitting this model is difficult because of its doubly-stochastic property, i.e., it is an hierarchical combination of a Poisson process at the…

The physical and economic damages of hurricanes can acutely affect employment and the well-being of employees. However, a comprehensive understanding of these impacts remains elusive as many studies focused on narrow subsets of regions or…

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have seen many developments in recent years. Though spatial joint models are still rare and the traditional proportional hazards formulation of the time-to-event part of the model is…

Short-term forecasting is an important tool in understanding environmental processes. In this paper, we incorporate machine learning algorithms into a conditional distribution estimator for the purposes of forecasting tropical cyclone…

A theoretical formulation for the early stage (Tropical Storm stage) of hurricane development is proposed. These solutions are not only consistent with observations but also offer some new insights into hurricane properties. This is the…

This paper demonstrates how principle component analysis can be used to determine the distinct factors that house the terms that explain the variance among the co-dependent variables and how non-response analysis can be applied to model the…

In this study, we examine a Bayesian approach to analyze extreme daily rainfall amounts and forecast return-levels. Estimating the probability of occurrence and quantiles of future extreme events is important in many applications, including…

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

Mixture autoregressive (MAR) models provide a flexible way to model time series with predictive distributions which depend on the recent history of the process and are able to accommodate asymmetry and multimodality. Bayesian inference for…

Conditional auto-regressive (CAR) distributions are widely used to induce spatial dependence in the geographic analysis of areal data. These distributions establish multivariate dependence networks by defining conditional relationships…

This paper studies risk balancing features in an insurance market by evaluating ruin probabilities for single and multiple components of a multivariate compound Poisson risk process. The dependence of the components of the process is…

In recent years, extreme shocks, such as natural disasters, are increasing in both frequency and intensity, causing significant economic loss to many cities around the world. Quantifying the economic cost of local businesses after extreme…

We present a new approach for constructing a data-driven surrogate model and using it for Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models. We first use parameter observations and Gaussian Process regression to…

Traditional spatio-temporal models for areal data typically begin with spatial structure imposed at the level of random effects and later extend to include temporal dynamics. We propose an alternative hierarchical modeling framework that…

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…

Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…

In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB)…

Autonomous agents must be able to safely interact with other vehicles to integrate into urban environments. The safety of these agents is dependent on their ability to predict collisions with other vehicles' future trajectories for…

The claim experience of the past is a very important information to calculate the fair price of an insurance contract. In a lot of European countries for instance the prices for motor car insurance depend on the number of claims the driver…