相关论文: Space-time smoothing of complex survey data: Small…

The increasing availability of complex survey data, and the continued need for estimates of demographic and health indicators at a fine spatial and temporal scale, which leads to issues of data sparsity, has led to the need for…

Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…

Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…

Accurate estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes new models to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in…

Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

The need for rigorous and timely health and demographic summaries has provided the impetus for an explosion in geographic studies, with a common approach being the production of pixel-level maps, particularly in low and middle income…

Fitting spatio-temporal models for areal data is crucial in many fields such as cancer epidemiology. However, when data sets are very large, many issues arise. The main objective of this paper is to propose a general procedure to analyze…

The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), a critical health indicator, is typically estimated from household surveys in lower and middle income countries. Spatio-temporal disaggregation of household survey data can lead to highly variable…

Short-term disease forecasting at specific discrete spatial resolutions has become a high-impact decision-support tool in health planning. However, when the number of areas is very large obtaining predictions can be computationally…

BACKGROUND There is an increasing demand for high quality subnational estimates of under-five mortality. In low and middle income countries, where the burden of under-five mortality is concentrated, vital registration is often lacking and…

Accurate fertility estimates at fine spatial resolution are essential for localized public health planning, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While national-level indicators such as age-specific fertility rates…

There is an increasing focus on reducing inequalities in health outcomes in developing countries. Subnational variation is of particular interest, with geographic data used to understand the spatial risk of detrimental outcomes and to…

In countries where population census data are limited, generating accurate subnational estimates of health and demographic indicators is challenging. Existing model-based geostatistical methods leverage covariate information and spatial…

This paper devises a fully Bayesian sample size determination method for hierarchical model-based small area estimation with a decision risk approach. A new loss function specified around a desired maximum posterior variance target…

Producing reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators at fine areal scales is crucial for examining heterogeneity and supporting localized health policy. However, many surveys release outcomes only at coarser administrative…

Existing datasets available to address crucial problems, such as child mortality and family planning discontinuation in developing countries, are not ample for data-driven approaches. This is partly due to disjoint data collection efforts…

In low and middle income countries, household surveys are a valuable source of information for a range of health and demographic indicators. Increasingly, subnational estimates are required for targeting interventions and evaluating…

Spatial aggregation with respect to a population distribution involves estimating aggregate quantities for a population based on an observation of individuals in a subpopulation. In this context, a geostatistical workflow must account for…