相关论文: Why trust a theory? Some further remarks (part 1)

Scientific knowledge expands by observing the world, hypothesizing some theories about it, and testing them against collected data. When those theories take the form of statistical models, statistical analyses are involved in the process of…

This paper advocates the usefulness of new theories of uncertainty for the purpose of modeling some facets of uncertain knowledge, especially vagueness, in AI. It can be viewed as a partial reply to Cheeseman's (among others) defense of…

Inspired by empirical work in neuroscience for Bayesian approaches to brain function, we give a unified probabilistic account of various types of symbolic reasoning from data. We characterise them in terms of formal logic using the…

We provide four case studies that use Bayesian machinery to making inductive reasoning. Our main motivation relies in offering several instances where the Bayesian approach to data analysis is exploited at its best to perform complex tasks,…

Probability models are only useful at explaining the uncertainty of what we do not know, and should never be used to say what we already know. Probability and statistical models are useless at discerning cause. Classical statistical…

The actual existence of collections of universes -- multiverses -- is strongly suggested by leading approaches to quantum cosmology, and has been proposed earlier as an attractive way to explain the apparent fine-tuned character of our…

Humans currently use arguments for explaining choices which are already made, or for evaluating potential choices. Each potential choice has usually pros and cons of various strengths. In spite of the usefulness of arguments in a decision…

Motivated by Breiman's rousing 2001 paper on the "two cultures" in statistics, we consider the role that different modeling approaches play in causal inference. We discuss the relationship between model complexity and causal…

Testing hypotheses is an issue of primary importance in the scientific research, as well as in many other human activities. Much clarification about it can be achieved if the process of learning from data is framed in a stochastic model of…

Recommender systems research is concerned with many aspects of recommender system behavior and effects than simply its effectiveness, and simulation can be a powerful tool for uncovering these effects. In this brief position paper, I…

We uncover a strong correspondence between Bayesian Networks and (Multiplicative) Linear Logic Proof-Nets, relating the two as a representation of a joint probability distribution and at the level of computation, so yielding a…

We explore Bayesian reasoning as a means to quantify uncertainty in neural networks for question answering. Starting with a multilayer perceptron on the Iris dataset, we show how posterior inference conveys confidence in predictions. We…

The search for a theory of quantum gravity faces two great challenges: the incredibly small scales of the Planck length and time, and the possibility that the observed constants of nature are in part the result of random processes. A…

This is a short account, based on a talk given at the 2024 Moriond Cosmology Conference, of where and why string theory matters in early universe cosmology. It is written for a cosmology audience predisposed to be at best sceptical, and at…

There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…

The review is a brief description of the state of problems in percolation theory and their numerous applications, which are analyzed on base of interesting papers published in the last 15-20 years. At the submitted papers are studied both…

In physics the value of a theory is measured by its agreement with experimental data. But how should the physics community gauge the value of an emerging theory that has not been tested experimentally as of yet? With no reality check, a…

In several papers, John Norton has argued that Bayesianism cannot handle ignorance adequately due to its inability to distinguish between neutral and disconfirming evidence. He argued that this inability sows confusion in, e.g., anthropic…

Justification theory is a unifying semantic framework. While it has its roots in non-monotonic logics, it can be applied to various areas in computer science, especially in explainable reasoning; its most central concept is a justification:…

Bayesian modeling provides a principled approach to quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure and has seen a surge of applications in recent years. Within the context of a Bayesian workflow, we are concerned with model…