相关论文: Why trust a theory? Some further remarks (part 1)

It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings…

Possibility theory offers a framework where both Lehmann's "preferential inference" and the more productive (but less cautious) "rational closure inference" can be represented. However, there are situations where the second inference does…

There currently exists a gap between the theories proposed by the probability and uncertainty and the needs of Artificial Intelligence research. These theories primarily address the needs of expert systems, using knowledge structures which…

This essay discusses the idea that a Theory of Everything would not be complete without a theory of consciousness as one of its parts, and the suggestion that new physics may be needed to describe consciousness. I argue that the motivations…

Reasoning is central to human intelligence, enabling structured problem-solving across diverse tasks. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have greatly enhanced their reasoning abilities in arithmetic, commonsense, and symbolic…

This paper is motivated by the questions of how to give the concept of probability an adequate real-world meaning, and how to explain a certain type of phenomenon that can be found, for instance, in Ellsberg's paradox. It attempts to answer…

This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, identification assumptions, the general structure of Bayesian inference of…

Is it possible for a large sequence of measurements or observations, which support a hypothesis, to counterintuitively decrease our confidence? Can unanimous support be too good to be true? The assumption of independence is often made in…

With increasing awareness of the hallucination risks of generative artificial intelligence (AI), we see a growing shift toward providing information tooling to help users determine the veracity of AI-generated answers for themselves. User…

With the advent of high-performance computing, Bayesian methods are increasingly popular tools for the quantification of uncertainty throughout science and industry. Since these methods impact the making of sometimes critical decisions in…

Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…

I thank Thomas Richardson and James Robins for their discussion of my paper, and discuss the similarities and differences between their approach to causal modelling, based on single world intervention graphs, and my own decision-theoretic…

I offer an account of how the quantum theory we have helps us explain so much. The account depends on a pragmatist interpretation of the theory: This takes a quantum state to serve solely as a source of sound advice to physically situated…

Through case studies, we demonstrate how multiverse analysis can strengthen the robustness and transparency of computational social science findings against alternative methodological decisions. We conduct multiverse analyses of three…

An overview is presented of a general theory of statistical inference that is referred to as the fiducial-Bayes fusion. This theory combines organic fiducial inference and Bayesian inference. The aim is that the reader is given a clear…

In this paper, we described possible directions for deeper understanding, helping bridge the gap between psychology / cognitive science and computational approaches in sentiment/opinion analysis literature. We focus on the opinion holder's…

The recent article `Satellite conjunction analysis and the false confidence theorem' (Balch, Martin, and Ferson, 2019, Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series A) points to certain difficulties with Bayesian analysis when used for models…

There has been a recent resurgence in the area of explainable artificial intelligence as researchers and practitioners seek to make their algorithms more understandable. Much of this research is focused on explicitly explaining decisions or…

I congratulate all the authors for their insightful papers with wide-ranging contributions. The articles demonstrate the power and elegance of the Bayesian inference paradigm. In particular, it allows to incorporate prior knowledge as well…

Information extraction from the scientific literature is one of the main techniques to transform unstructured knowledge hidden in the text into structured data which can then be used for decision-making in down-stream tasks. One such area…