相关论文: Why trust a theory? Some further remarks (part 1)
Teaching how to derive minimax decision rules can be challenging because of the lack of examples that are simple enough to be used in the classroom. Motivated by this challenge, we provide a new example that illustrates the use of standard…
The aim of this comment (set to appear in a formal discussion in JASA) is to draw out some conclusions from an extended back-and-forth I have had with Wang and Blei regarding the deconfounder method proposed in "The Blessings of Multiple…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in group decision-making, but their influence risks fostering conformity and reducing epistemic vigilance. Drawing on the Argumentative Theory of Reasoning, we argue that confirmation bias,…
Bayesian evidence ratios give a very attractive way of comparing models, and being able to quote the odds on a particular model seems a very clear motivation for making a choice. Jeffreys' scale of evidence is often used in the…
Priors in which a large number of parameters are specified to be independent are dangerous; they make it hard to learn from data. I present a couple of examples from the literature and work through a bit of large sample theory to show what…
This paper argues that, insofar as we doubt the bivalence of the Continuum Hypothesis or the truth of the Axiom of Choice, we should also doubt the consistency of third-order arithmetic, both the classical and intuitionistic versions.…
Modern scientific cosmology pushes the boundaries of knowledge and the knowable. This is prompting questions on the nature of scientific knowledge. A central issue is what defines a 'good' model. When addressing global properties of the…
We study the correspondence between Bayesian Networks and graphical representation of proofs in linear logic. The goal of this paper is threefold: to develop a proof-theoretical account of Bayesian inference (in the spirit of the…
According to one of its founders, game theory would soon be a little over a hundred years old . A well-known theory in the academic and strategic fields, it is often the subject of criticism and, for many, seems too simplistic to be truly…
It is known that recommendations of AI-based systems can be incorrect or unfair. Hence, it is often proposed that a human be the final decision-maker. Prior work has argued that explanations are an essential pathway to help human…
This paper evaluates some important aspects of the multiverse concept. Firstly, the most realistic opportunity for it which is the spacetime variability of the physical constants and may deliver worlds with different physics, hopefully…
Recently, we pointed out the possible inconsistency in the very foundations of the Everett MWI (or a Multiverse) theory. Here, we place some emphasis on the very basic notions underlying our conclusion yet motivated by certain, recently…
In astro-ph/0702542v2, Linder and Miquel seek to criticize the use of Bayesian model selection for data analysis and for survey forecasting and design. Their discussion is based on three serious misunderstandings of the conceptual…
Several subjective proposals have been made for interpreting the strength of evidence in likelihood ratios and Bayes factors. I identify a more objective scaling by modelling the effect of evidence on belief. The resulting scale with base…
Some scientific research questions ask to guide decisions and others do not. By their nature frequentist hypothesis-tests yield a dichotomous test decision as result, rendering them rather inappropriate for latter types of research…
Theory refinement is the task of updating a domain theory in the light of new cases, to be done automatically or with some expert assistance. The problem of theory refinement under uncertainty is reviewed here in the context of Bayesian…
Understanding realistic complex systems requires confronting significant conceptual, theoretical and experimental limitations rooted in the persistence of views that originated in the mechanics of simple moving bodies. We define the…
The theory of belief functions is an effective tool to deal with the multiple uncertain information. In recent years, many evidence combination rules have been proposed in this framework, such as the conjunctive rule, the cautious rule, the…
Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A…
This paper offers a synthesis of the positions in the literature regarding controversies about the multiverse. After reviewing some simple elements of modern cosmology and its observational limitations, we will present the history of the…