相关论文: Predicting and controlling the Ebola infection
We study some simple models of disease transmission on small-world networks, in which either the probability of infection by a disease or the probability of its transmission is varied, or both. The resulting models display epidemic behavior…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission…
We consider the spread of infectious disease through contact networks of Configuration Model type. We assume that the disease spreads through contacts and infected individuals recover into an immune state. We discuss a number of existing…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
We present numerical results obtained from the modelling of a stochastic, highly connected and mobile community. The spread of attributes like health, disease among the community members is simulated using cellular automata on a planar 2…
We formulate an optimal control problem to determine the lockdown policy to curb an epidemic where other control measures are not available yet. We present a unified framework to model the epidemic and economy that allows us to study the…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease which is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia and the Western Pacific. This study addresses a mathematical…
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases…
Epidemics-inspired techniques have received huge attention in recent years from the distributed systems and networking communities. These algorithms and protocols rely on probabilistic message replication and redundancy to ensure reliable…
Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Operationally, health workers and surveillance teams treated cases, collected genetic samples, and tracked case…
The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
Recent statistics of malaria shows that over 200 million cases and estimated deaths of nearly half a million occur globally. Africa alone accounts for almost 90% of the cases. Several studies have been conducted to understand the disease…
The emergence of mutant lineages within a viral species has become a public health problem, as the existing treatments and drugs are usually more effective on the original lineages than in the mutant ones. The following manuscript presents…