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This paper introduces a novel approach employing extreme value theory to analyze queue lengths within a corridor controlled by adaptive controllers. We consider the maximum queue lengths of a signalized corridor consisting of nine…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-08-05 Shakib Mustavee , Pushkin Kachroo , Shaurya Agarwal

The estimation of the Extreme Value Index (EVI) is fundamental in extreme value analysis but suffers from high variance due to reliance on only a few extreme observations. We propose a control variates based transfer learning approach in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-20 Louison Bocquet-Nouaille , Jérôme Morio , Benjamin Bobbia

The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-06 Stephan Clémençon , Anne Sabourin

Differential testing is a highly effective technique for automatically detecting software bugs and vulnerabilities when the specifications involve an analysis over multiple executions simultaneously. Differential fuzzing, in particular,…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-11-06 Rafael Baez , Alejandro Olivas , Nathan K. Diamond , Marcelo Frias , Yannic Noller , Saeid Tizpaz-Niari

Estimating the probability of rare channel conditions is a central challenge in ultra-reliable wireless communication, where random events, such as deep fades, can cause sudden variations in the channel quality. This paper proposes a…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-07-08 Tobias Kallehauge , Anders E. Kalør , Pablo Ramírez-Espinosa , Christophe Biscio , Petar Popovski

Diversity schemes play a vital role in improving the performance of ultra-reliable communication systems by transmitting over two or more communication channels to combat fading and co-channel interference. Determining an appropriate…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2024-01-12 Niloofar Mehrnia , Sinem Coleri

Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2026-01-22 Anand Deo

This paper introduces a sophisticated and adaptable framework combining extreme value theory with radio maps to spatially model extreme channel conditions accurately. Utilising existing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) measurements and…

网络与互联网体系结构 · 计算机科学 2024-04-09 Dian Echevarría Pérez , Onel L. Alcaraz López , Hirley Alves

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-12-11 Dylan Troop , Frédéric Godin , Jia Yuan Yu

This paper leverages the statistics of extreme values to predict the worst-case convergence times of machine learning algorithms. Timing is a critical non-functional property of ML systems, and providing the worst-case converge times is…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2024-04-11 Saeid Tizpaz-Niari , Sriram Sankaranarayanan

Effective maintenance of railway infrastructure is crucial for safe and comfortable transportation. Among the various degradation modes, track geometry deformation due to repeated loading significantly impacts operational safety. Detecting…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-02-11 Huy Truong-Ba , Sinda Rebello , Michael E. Cholette , Venkat Reddy , Pietro Borghesani

Ensuring safety is a critical challenge in applying Reinforcement Learning (RL) to real-world scenarios. Constrained Reinforcement Learning (CRL) addresses this by maximizing returns under predefined constraints, typically formulated as the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Shiqing Gao , Yihang Zhou , Shuai Shao , Haoyu Luo , Yiheng Bing , Jiaxin Ding , Luoyi Fu , Xinbing Wang

In this paper, we discuss the application of extreme value theory in the context of stationary $\beta$-mixing sequences that belong to the Fr\'echet domain of attraction. In particular, we propose a methodology to construct bias-corrected…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-08-24 Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Armelle Guillou

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Classification tasks usually assume that all possible classes are present during the training phase. This is restrictive if the algorithm is used over a long time and possibly encounters samples from unknown classes. The recently introduced…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-18 Edoardo Vignotto , Sebastian Engelke

Many works have studied the efficacy of state machines for detecting anomalies within NetFlows. These works typically learn a model from unlabeled data and compute anomaly scores for arbitrary traces based on their likelihood of occurrence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Clinton Cao , Agathe Blaise , Annibale Panichella , Sicco Verwer

Video surveillance is gaining increasing popularity to assist in railway intrusion detection in recent years. However, efficient and accurate intrusion detection remains a challenging issue due to: (a) limited sample number: only small…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-10 Xiao Gong , Xi Chen , Wei Chen

This paper presents an innovative approach to Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) by introducing the Extreme Value Dynamic Benchmarking Method (EVDBM). EVDBM integrates extreme value theory to detect extreme events and is coupled with the novel…

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-05 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Anne Sabourin

Data-driven anomaly detection methods typically build a model for the normal behavior of the target system, and score each data instance with respect to this model. A threshold is invariably needed to identify data instances with high (or…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-10-09 Sreelekha Guggilam , S. M. Arshad Zaidi , Varun Chandola , Abani Patra