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Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is…

In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been been sustained for greater than 10 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to…

Human interactions and mobility shape epidemic dynamics by facilitating disease outbreaks and their spatial spread across regions. Traditional models often isolate commuting and random mobility as separate behaviors, focusing either on…

We investigate the role of migration patterns on the spread of epidemics in complex networks. We enhance the SIS-diffusion model on metapopulations to a nonlinear diffusion. Specifically, individuals move randomly over the network but at a…

Motile organisms can form stable agglomerates such as cities or colonies. In the outbreak of a highly contagious disease, the control of large-scale epidemic spread depends on factors like the number and size of agglomerates, travel rate…

Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of…

Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…

Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…

Diffusion processes in a social system are governed by external triggers and internal excitations via interactions between individuals over social networks. Underlying mechanisms are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in the real…

Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…

Vector-borne epidemics are the result of the combination of different factors such as the crossed contagions between humans and vectors, their demographic distribution and human mobility among others. The current availability of information…

The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…

Vector-borne diseases arise from the coupled dynamics of human mobility and mosquito ecology, producing outbreaks shaped by both spatial distributions and temporal patterns of movement. Here we develop a coarse-grained hub--leaf reduction…

The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents…

Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from…

The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…

The 2014 epidemic of the Ebola virus is governed by a genetically diverse viral population. In the early Sierra Leone outbreak, a recent study has identified new mutations that generate genetically distinct sequence clades. Here we find…

Stochastic compartmental models are important tools for understanding the course of infectious diseases epidemics in populations and in prospective evaluation of intervention policies. However, calculating the likelihood for discretely…

Motivated by recent outbreaks of the Ebola Virus, we are concerned with the role that a vector reservoir plays in supporting the spatio-temporal spread of a highly lethal disease through a host population. In our context, the reservoir is a…