相关论文: Learning the Number of Autoregressive Mixtures in …

In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…

In several disciplines it is common to find time series measured at irregular observational times. In particular, in astronomy there are a large number of surveys that gather information over irregular time gaps and in more than one…

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Motivated by a variety of applications, high-dimensional time series have become an active topic of research. In particular, several methods and finite-sample theories for individual stable autoregressive processes with known lag have…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the…

In data science, vector autoregression (VAR) models are popular in modeling multivariate time series in the environmental sciences and other applications. However, these models are computationally complex with the number of parameters…

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…

Time series models aim for accurate predictions of the future given the past, where the forecasts are used for important downstream tasks like business decision making. In practice, deep learning based time series models come in many forms,…

Most time-series models assume that the data come from observations that are equally spaced in time. However, this assumption does not hold in many diverse scientific fields, such as astronomy, finance, and climatology, among others. There…

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

A threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is a powerful tool for analyzing nonlinear multivariate time series, which includes special cases like self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In…

Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences…

The class of autoregressive (AR) processes is extensively used to model temporal dependence in observed time series. Such models are easily available and routinely fitted using freely available statistical software like R. A potential…

In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH…