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The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2018-08-29 Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang , Qi-Rong Jiao , Jin-Bin Cao

This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Stefano Sello

The solar activity in the current, that is, the 24-th, sunspot cycle is analyzed. Cyclic variations in the sunspot number (SSN) and radiation fluxes in various spectral ranges have been estimated in comparison with the general level of the…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2018-05-01 E. A. Bruevich , V. V. Bruevich , G. V. Yakunina

We analyze the temporal distribution of sunspot groups for even and odd cycles in the range SC12-SC24. It seems that cycle 24 is a characteristic even cycle, although with low amplitude. The number of large sunspot groups for cycle 24 is…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-11-26 Jouni J. Takalo

Empirical rules of solar cycle evolution form important observational constraints for the solar dynamo theory. This includes the Waldmeier rule relating the magnitude of a solar cycle to the length of its ascending phase, and the…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-01-20 Ilya Usoskin , Gennady Kovaltsov , Wilma Kiviaho

Continuous wavelet transform and cross-wavelet transform have been used to investigate the phase periodicity and synchrony of the monthly mean Wolf ($R_{z}$) and group ($R_{g}$) sunspot numbers during the period of June 1795 to December…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-19 Kejun Li , Hongfei Liang

Sunspots are the standard measure of solar magnetic activity, which are also used to estimate solar spectral irradiance over centennial time scales. However, because of the lack of homogeneous, century-long spectral measurements, the…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2025-10-27 Kalevi Mursula

We have used semi-synthetic records of emerging sunspot groups based on sunspot number data as input for a surface flux transport model to reconstruct the evolution of the large-scale solar magnetic field and the open heliospheric flux from…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-05-27 Jie Jiang , Robert H. Cameron , Dieter Schmitt , M. Schuessler

Measurements from the Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) are used to study the long-term variations of sunspot field strengths from 1920 to 1958. Following a modified approach similar to that in Pevtsov et al. (2011), for each observing week we…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2013-01-28 Alexei A. Pevtsov , Luca Bertello , Andrey G. Tlatov , Ali Kilcik , Yury A. Nagovitsyn , Edward W. Cliver

Catalogues of sunspots have been available with useful information about sunspots or sunspot groups for approximately the last 150 years. However, the task of merging these catalogues is not simple. In this paper, a method is suggested of…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-06-03 V. M. S. Carrasco , L. Lefevre , J. M. Vaquero , M. C. Gallego

We construct a new solar cycle phase clock which maps each of the last 18 solar cycles onto a single normalized epoch for the approximately 22 year Hale (magnetic polarity) cycle, using the Hilbert transform of daily sunspot numbers (SSN)…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-08-25 S. C. Chapman , S. W. McIntosh , R. J. Leamon , N. W. Watkins

Activity-related variations in the solar oscillation properties have been known for 30 years. However, the relative importance of the different contributions to the observed variations is not yet fully understood. Our goal is to estimate…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2016-10-24 A. R. G. Santos , M. S. Cunha , P. P. Avelino , W. J. Chaplin , T. L. Campante

The decay of sunspot groups is a relatively unknown field since most studies have focused mainly on the decay of sunspots or sunspot groups, but only on small samples. As an extension of the recent work of \citet{2020ApJ...892..107M} which…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-02-24 Judit Muraközy

The sunspot number (SSN), the total solar irradiance (TSI), a TSI reconstruction, and the solar flare index (SFI), are analyzed for long-range persistence (LRP). Standard Hurst analysis yields $H \approx 0.9$, which suggests strong LRP.…

空间物理 · 物理学 2015-06-03 Martin Rypdal , Kristoffer Rypdal

The rise and fall in the number of sunspots have served as a lynchpin in many investigations on solar dynamics. Arising from magnetic disturbances in the sun, variations in sunspot numbers have helped define a solar cycle of around eleven…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2023-06-27 Reynan L. Toledo , Reinabelle Reyes , Christopher C. Bernido

Sunspots depict large variability during the last 100 years, a period called the Modern Maximum (MM). However, other variables are needed to study the long-term evolution, e.g., of weaker fields and different radiative emissions. Recently,…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2025-11-25 Kalevi Mursula

Using Greenwich and SOON sunspot group data during the period 1874 -- 2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in $0^\circ$ -- $10^\circ$ latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval,…

天体物理学 · 物理学 2008-11-26 J. Javaraiah

Complex network approaches have been recently developed as an alternative framework to study the statistical features of time-series data. We perform a visibility-graph analysis on both the daily and monthly sunspot series. Based on the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-06-16 Yong Zou , Michael Small , Zonghua Liu , Jürgen Kurths

We study the latitudinal distribution and evolution of sunspot areas from Solar Cycle 12 to Solar Cycle 23 (SC12-SC23) and sunspot-groups of from Solar Cycle 8 to Solar Cycle 23 (SC8-SC23) for even and odd cycles. The Rician distribution is…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-04-01 Jouni J. Takalo

The Sun shows a global magnetic field cycle traditionally best visible in the photosphere as a changing sunspot cycle featuring roughly an 11 year period. In addition we know that our host star also harbours small-scale magnetic fields…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2017-12-20 D. Utz , R. Muller , T. Van Doorsselaere