相关论文: Estimation of uncertainties from missing higher or…

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$\sigma$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this…

Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…

Bayesian methods have been widely used in the last two decades to infer statistical properties of spatially variable coefficients in partial differential equations from measurements of the solutions of these equations. Yet, in many cases…

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

This paper proposes an estimation framework to assess the performance of sorting over perturbed/noisy data. In particular, the recovering accuracy is measured in terms of Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) between the values of the sorting…

We present a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for the hybrid high-order (HHO) method for the Stokes model problem. Both the proposed HHO method and error estimator are valid in two and three dimensions and support arbitrary…

Higher-order multiway data is ubiquitous in machine learning and statistics and often exhibits community-like structures, where each component (node) along each different mode has a community membership associated with it. In this paper we…

Confidence estimation can improve the reliability of melody estimation by indicating which predictions are likely incorrect. The existing classification-based approach provides confidence for predicted pitch classes but fails to capture the…

To obtain strong convergence rates of numerical schemes, an overwhelming majority of existing works impose a global monotonicity condition on coefficients of SDEs. Nevertheless, there are still many SDEs from applications that do not have…

It is often of interest to combine available estimates of a similar quantity from multiple data sources. When the corresponding variances of each estimate are also available, a model should take into account the uncertainty of the estimates…

Parameters of the mathematical model describing many practical dynamical systems are prone to vary due to aging or renewal, wear and tear, as well as changes in environmental or service conditions. These variabilities will adversely affect…

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

A variety of algorithms have been proposed to address the power system state estimation problem in the presence of uncertainties in the data. However, less emphasis has been given to handling perturbations in the model. In the context of…

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells. These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not…

Multiple imputation has become one of the standard methods in drawing inferences in many incomplete data applications. Applications of multiple imputation in relatively more complex settings, such as high-dimensional clustered data, require…

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and heuristic predictive estimation (HPE) are two widely used approaches in industrial uncertainty analysis. We review them from the point of view of decision theory, using Bayesian inference as a gold…

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

This study investigates component wise estimation of ordered variances of scale mixture of two normal distributions. For this study two special loss functions are considered namely squared error loss function and entropy loss function. We…

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…