相关论文: Estimation of uncertainties from missing higher or…

Statistical models can involve implicitly defined quantities, such as solutions to nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that unavoidably need to be numerically approximated in order to evaluate the model. The approximation…

Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for bi-variate data observed in time but with observation times which occur non-synchronously. In particular, this occurs in a wide variety of applications in finance, such as high-frequency…

Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

The model uncertainty obtained by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout is prone to miscalibration. In this paper, different logit scaling methods are extended to dropout variational inference to recalibrate model…

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

This paper presents a study using the Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use of other distributions for the errors in the…

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for both covariate selection and sparse precision matrix estimation in the context of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models involving multiple responses. Our approach provides a sparse estimation…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

We study high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with product priors. Using the nascent theory of non-linear large deviations (Chatterjee and Dembo,2016), we derive sufficient conditions for the leading-order correctness of the naive…

A model-based extended state observer (MB-ESO) and its variant are proposed for discrete-time linear multivariable systems, where multiple disturbances are defined as an extended state vector in the same manner as in the original…

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

The electroweak diboson production cross-sections are known to receive large radiative corrections beyond leading-order (LO), approaching up to 60% at next-to-leading order (NLO), compared to the scale uncertainties which are in the range…

This paper is concerned with a lesser-studied problem in the context of model-based, uncertainty quantification (UQ), that of optimization/design/control under uncertainty. The solution of such problems is hindered not only by the usual…

Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…

The Bayes factor is a widely used criterion in model comparison and its logarithm is a difference of out-of-sample predictive scores under the logarithmic scoring rule. However, when some of the candidate models involve vague priors on…

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…