相关论文: An analysis of the vectorial capacity using moment…

Many epidemic processes in networks spread by stochastic contacts among their connected vertices. There are two limiting cases widely analyzed in the physics literature, the so-called contact process (CP) where the contagion is expanded at…

The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…

Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…

In this article we consider a microscopic model for host-vector disease transmission based on configuration space analysis. Using Vlasov scaling we obtain the corresponding mesoscopic (kinetic) equations, describing the density of…

We couple a multi-type stochastic epidemic process with a directed random graph, where edges have random lengths. This random graph representation is used to characterise the fractions of individuals infected by the different types of…

We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…

Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…

Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…

We present an accurate user-encounter trace generator based on analytical models. Our method generates traces of intercontact times faster than models that explicitly generate mobility traces. We use this trace generator to study the…

We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…

We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…

Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently…

We consider a Spatial Markov Chain model for the spread of viruses. The model is based on the principle to represent a graph connecting nodes, which represent humans. The vertices between the nodes represent relations between humans. In…

I study the spreading of infectious diseases on heterogeneous populations. I represent the population structure by a contact-graph where vertices represent agents and edges represent disease transmission channels among them. The population…

Since a significant amount of disease transmission occurs through human-to-human or social contact, understanding who interacts with whom in time and space is essential for disease transmission modeling, prediction, and assessment of…

From footpaths to flight routes, human mobility networks facilitate the spread of communicable diseases. Control and elimination efforts depend on characterizing these networks in terms of connections and flux rates of individuals between…

Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…

We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…

Motivated by the study of social insects, we introduce a stochastic model based on interacting particle systems in order to understand the effect of communication on the division of labor. Members of the colony are located on the vertex set…

In this work we introduce an approach for modeling and analyzing collective behavior of a group of agents using moments. We represent the group of agents via their distribution and derive a method to estimate the dynamics of the moments. We…