相关论文: Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimatio…
This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested…
The data for the Ebola outbreak that occurred in 2014-2016 in three countries of West Africa are analysed within a common framework. The analysis is made using the results of an agent based Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model on a…
The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leonne and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it…
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is the largest ever recorded, with over 27,000 cases and 11,000 deaths as of June 2015. The public health response was challenged by difficulties with disease surveillance, which impacted subsequent…
An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an…
We present a comparison between two different mathematical models used in the description of the Ebola virus propagation currently occurring in West Africa. In order to improve the prediction and the control of the propagation of the virus,…
A major Ebola outbreak occurs in West Africa since March 2014, being the deadliest epidemic in history. As an infectious disease epidemiology, Ebola is the most lethal and is moving faster than in previous outbreaks. On 8 August 2014, the…
The spread of Ebola virus in 2014 is unprecedented. The epidemic is still affecting West Africa, exacerbated by extraordinary socioeconomic disadvantages and health system inadequacies. With the aim of understanding, predicting, and control…
The 2014 Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of the genus Ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases…
The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we…
The Ebola virus in West Africa has infected almost 30,000 and killed over 11,000 people. Recent models of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) have often made assumptions about how the disease spreads, such as uniform transmissibility and homogeneous…
Background: The 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was the largest on record, resulting in over 25,000 total infections and 15,000 total deaths. Mathematical modeling can be used to investigate the mechanisms driving transmission during…
In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been been sustained for greater than 10 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
The Ebola virus is spreading throughout West Africa and is causing thousands of deaths. In order to quantify the effectiveness of different strategies for controlling the spread, we develop a mathematical model in which the propagation of…
A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious…
The 2014 Ebola outbreak in west Africa raised many questions about the control of infectious disease in an increasingly connected global society. Limited availability of contact information made contact tracing difficult or impractical in…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…
Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…
A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model…