相关论文: Hitting times of threshold exceedances and their d…
We investigate exceedances of the process over a sufficiently high threshold. The exceedances determine the risk of hazardous events like climate catastrophes, huge insurance claims, the loss and delay in telecommunication networks. Due to…
The control and risk assessment in complex information systems require to take into account extremes arising from nodes with large node degrees. Various sampling techniques like a Page Rank random walk, a Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain…
Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…
We consider an infectious disease spreading along the edges of a network which may have significant clustering. The individuals in the population have heterogeneous infectiousness and/or susceptibility. We define the out-transmissibility of…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…
Hitting times provide a fundamental measure of distance in random processes, quantifying the expected number of steps for a random walk starting at node $u$ to reach node $v$. They have broad applications across domains such as network…
In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of the point process of exceedances in a spatio-temporal setting whose points are given by the rescaled occurrence times, the sites and the rescaled values of exceedances. Here, the…
Network properties govern the rate and extent of various spreading processes, from simple contagions to complex cascades. Recently, the analysis of spreading processes has been extended from static networks to temporal networks, where nodes…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
We use real-world contact sequences, time-ordered lists of contacts from one person to another, to study how fast information or disease can spread across network of contacts. Specifically we measure the reachability time -- the average…
Avalanches are often defined as signals higher than some detection level in bursty systems. The choice of the detection threshold affects the number of avalanches, but it can also affect their temporal correlations. We simulated the…
We study the propagation of information in social networks. To do so, we focus on a cascade model where nodes are infected with {probability $p_1$ after their first contact with the information and with probability $p_2$ at all subsequent…
The threshold model is a simple but classic model of contagion spreading in complex social systems. To capture the complex nature of social influencing we investigate numerically and analytically the transition in the behavior of…
For a reliable prediction of an epidemic or information spreading pattern in complex systems, well-defined measures are essential. In the susceptible-infected model on heterogeneous networks, the cluster of infected nodes in the…
Infectious or contagious diseases can be transmitted from one person to another through social contact networks. In today's interconnected global society, such contagion processes can cause global public health hazards, as exemplified by…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
Information and individual activities often spread globally through the network of social ties. While social contagion phenomena have been extensively studied within the framework of threshold models, it is common to make an assumption that…
In this paper, we investigate temporal clusters of extremes defined as subsequent exceedances of high thresholds in a stationary time series. Two meaningful features of these clusters are the probability distribution of the cluster size and…
We study spreading on networks where the contact dynamics between the nodes is governed by a random process and where the inter-contact time distribution may differ from the exponential. We consider a process of imperfect spreading, where…
There is a commonality among contagious diseases, tweets, urban crimes, nuclear reactions, and neuronal firings that past events facilitate the future occurrence of events. The spread of events has been extensively studied such that the…